000 AGXX40 KNHC 240708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/21Z SREF FOR WIND THROUGH SAT MORNING THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND. 00Z MWW3 USED FOR WAVES WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHER SEAS IN GALE WARNING AREA. THE 0340Z ASCAT-B PASS CAPTURED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SW LOUISIANA AND MULTIPLE PLATFORMS HAVE REPORTED WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE IN THE NW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE 00Z. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE DOING A REASONABLY GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE INITIAL CONDITIONS AND AGREE ON SPREADING THE GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THESE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE 00Z GEFS AND 21Z SREF BY 18Z TODAY WHEN THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THE FAR SW GULF WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF CAP WINDS AT 30 KT. THE SREF PROBABILITIES GET AS HIGH AS 50-60 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A GALE IN THE SW GULF BY 00Z. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 00Z GEFS GALE PROBABILITIES DROP TO ZERO. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MEMBERS OF THE SREF GENERALLY DO A GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE TOPOGRAPHIC IMPACTS CLOSE TO THE COAST HERE. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE 21Z SREF...EXPANDING THE GALE WARNING SLIGHTLY FARTHER S ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUING THE GALE THROUGH 00Z. WILL BUMP UP WW3 FORECAST BY 2-3 FT WITH THIS EVENT WITH PEAK SEAS EXPECTED AT LEAST 13 FT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAK LOW PRES THAT WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF TO THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...TO THE W OF A WEAK 1020 HIGH OVER THE E GULF. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND INTO SE U.S. MON AS TRAILING BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS AND NW PORTIONS MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND...RELYING MORE ON THE GFS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR WAVES. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM ATLC THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. 0242Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT NE WINDS IN THE PASSAGE WITH SHIP 3EBL5 REPORTING 28 KT AND 7 FT SEAS AT 06Z. NEITHER THE 00Z GFS NOT THE ECMWF CAPTURED THIS STRONG NE BREEZE...SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVATIONS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRAD WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E. OTHERWISE...NE PULSES OF 20-25 KT PULSES WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WILL BE AT 25-30 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BASIN WIDE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS GULF WEAKENS AND NEW FRONTAL ZONE SWEEPS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. E ATLC HIGH PRES HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION...HALTING THE PROGRESS OF ATLC FRONTS AND MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS 6-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH SAT...WITH NE TO E WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR WIND. 00Z MWW3/EC WAVE BLEND FOR WAVES. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N53W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE E ATLC RIDGE BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FURTHER EWD PROGRESS. FRESH WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE LIFTED OUT OF AREA LEAVING TWO PULSES OF NW SWELL TO MOVE THROUGH WATERS NEXT 48-72 HRS. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...AN OPPORTUNE ALTIMETER PASS HAD SUGGESTED THAT THE EC WAVE HANDLING OF THE SECONDARY PULSE OF SWELL IS BETTER THAN WW3. THE EC WAVE CARRIES SEAS 1-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 OVER N CENTRAL BY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE REINFORCING ENERGY EXPECTED TO INVIGORATE THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST BLENDS IN A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EC WAVE FOR THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SERIES OF BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWEEPING ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND PRODUCING NW-N WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS FRI...AND THEN WLY FLOW 20-25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 28N SAT NIGHT AND SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TODAY. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.