000 AGXX40 KNHC 232006 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 306 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS MODERATE RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN PAST 12 HOURS AS HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. RIDGES SE ACROSS FL AND INTO SW N ATLC. COASTAL TROUGH ALONG TEXAS DEVELOPING INTO FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 1040+ HIGH ACROSS GREAT BASIN BUILDS S INTO REGION...WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTED TO EXTEND OFFSHORE OF LA COAST PER RECENT ASCAT PASS. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN FRONT BEING FORCED SWD THIS EVENING INTO TEXAS OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH NE GALES BEGINNING N OF BOUNDARY AROUND 06Z THEN SPREADING SWD DOWN MEXICAN COAST AND COASTAL WATERS FRI AS FRONT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY S AND NW PORTIONS...AND FORMS A VERY SHARP N TO S ALIGNED INVERTED TROF ALONG 94/95W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GALES MAY EXTEND BEYOND 18Z AND SPREAD S INTO W BAY OF CAMPECHE AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING BUT LIKELY TO END BY 00Z PER LATEST GUIDANCE. HAVE BUMPED UP WW3 FORECAST BY 2-3 FT WITH THIS EVENT WITH PEAK SEAS EXPECTED AT LEAST 13 FT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW ALONG N END OF FRONT/TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAK LOW TO SHIFT EWD ALONG 27N SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND OVER WEAK 1020 HIGH THAT WILL SETTLE OVER SE GULF. MODEST AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS WEAK LOW AS IT TRACKS S OF MOUTH OF MS SUN AFTERNOON-EVE... WHILE RETURN FLOW EVOLVES ACROSS W AND SW PORTION. LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND INTO SE U.S. MON AS TRAILING BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS AND NW PORTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS TWO DYING FRONTAL ZONES ACROSS NW CARIB...AND THROUGH W CENTRAL CARIB BECOMING ILL DEFINED ATTM...WITH ASSOCIATED MERGED FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM ATLC THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NELY FLOW 20 KT SPILLING IN LEE OF CUBA E OF 82W...AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-6 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING AS FRONT AND BUILDING HIGH ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT TO NW OF THESE TWO ILL DEFINED BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...NE PULSES OF 20-25 KT PULSES WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WILL BE AT 25-30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING... AND LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BASIN WIDE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES ACROSS GULF WEAKENS AND NEW FRONTAL ZONE SWEEPS ACROSS SW N ATLC. E ATLC HIGH HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION AND HALTED PROGRESS OF ATLC FRONT...AND WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS 6-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH SAT...WITH NE TO E WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONTS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MERGED INTO A SINGLE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N57W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH E ATLC RIDGE BLOCKING AN FURTHER EWD PROGRESS. FRESH WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE LIFTED OUT OF AREA LEAVING TWO PULSES OF NW SWELL TO MOVE THROUGH WATERS NEXT 48-72 HRS. AN OPPORTUNE ALTIMETER PASS EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT ECMWF HANDLING SECONDARY PULSE OF SWELL BETTER THAN WW3 AND HAVE BLENDED IN SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ECWAVE FOR THIS PACKAGE. NW SWELL NOW OUTRUNNING FRONT BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS TONIGHT...WITH PEAK PERIOD 13-14 SECS AT AROUND 5-6 FT. THIS INITIAL PULSE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BE FOLLOWED BY SECOND PULSE WITHIN ABOUT 18 HOURS...ARRIVING INTO SE WATERS LATE FRI AFTERNOON. PEAK SWH ACROSS N PORTIONS WERE 10-15 FT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT EWD NEXT 24 HOURS...FADING TO 7-10 FT FRI. STEERING PATTERN TO HOLD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SERIES OF BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SWEEPING ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND PRODUCING NW-N WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS FRI...AND THEN WLY FLOW 20-25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 28N SAT NIGHT AND SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.