000
AGXX40 KNHC 230708
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO SEA HEIGHTS. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS IMMEDIATELY INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS. THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE 
WITH THE NE FLOW INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE 
NW ZONE EARLY TONIGHT. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS 
THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT...THEN END BY SUNRISE FRI.
 
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT 
FROM SE TX TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 24N96W 
EARLY FRI NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ON SAT AND GET ABSORBED BY 
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS LATE 
SAT. THE FRONT SEEMS TO STALL BRIEFLY FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FL TO 
28N90W TO 25N94W ON SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES E AGAIN SUN NIGHT 
PASSING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN BEHIND THIS FRONT ON MON NIGHT WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS 
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW WATERS EARLY MON NIGHT. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS GULF WATERS N OF 25N BY SUNRISE 
ON TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MED CONFIDENCE.

NE 20-25 KT PULSES WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE 
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM 
WILL BE AT 25-30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING... 
AND LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. NE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY FRI. 
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE NE WINDS TO 20-25 
KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH 
TO 15-20 KT ON SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE WINDS WILL CLOCK TO 
THE E AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND MON.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC 
WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT 
ON MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MED CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS MERGED WITH A PERSISTENT FROM FRONTAL TROUGH 
FROM 31N62W TO E CUBA. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 
KT N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 55W WHILE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WINDS W 
OF THE FRONT...BUT 7-13 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT TO 
THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY AS 
THE FRONT STALL FROM 31N62W TO 20N72W. A NORTHERLY SURGE... 
DEPICTED ON THE MARINE GRAPHICS AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT... 
WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND REACH 
FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI LATE FRI AND MERGING WITH WHATEVER REMAINS 
OF THE THEN WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH BY SAT. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT 
WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N ON FRI WHILE N-NE 
15-20 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH NE 
20-25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE 
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN STALLING 
ON MON. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. 
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING FRI.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.