000 AGXX40 KNHC 221859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 159 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS WITH LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE BASIN AND IS NOW BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS NW CARIB...ACROSS YUCATAN...AND INTO SE MEXICO S OF LAGUNA DE TERMINOS IN W PORTION OF STATE OF CAMPECHE. STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT HAD KICKED UP SEAS TO 11 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS...AND TO 10 FT IN SW PORTIONS...PER AM ALTIMETER PASSES. THESE VALUES WERE 3-4 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 AND 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN ECWAVE. SEAS COMING DOWN SLOWLY ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE LONGEST FETCHES WERE ESTABLISHED...WITH BUOY 42099 OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY STILL AT 8 FT. SFC HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COASTS WILL SINK SE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND MOVE SETTLE INTO NE GULF TO RELAX GRADIENT...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF GREAT BASIN SE INTO N GULF WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF BENIGN AND DRY FRONT ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT...WITH SUFFICIENT GRADIENT TO FORCE 20-30 KT N OF BOUNDARY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH NLY SURGE RACING DOWN TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS FRI TO PRODUCE SHARP TROFFING ALONG 95/96W AND STRONG HIGH DAMMING UP AGAINST TO THE W...AND TO THE NE. GALES FORECAST INITIALLY TO THE N OF BOUNDARY THU NIGHT AND THEN W OF FRONT ACROSS MEXICAN WATERS FRI NOT SO CERTAIN NOW AS 06Z RUN OF GFS BACKED OFF OF THIS...AND CURRENTLY SREF PEAKING AT 20% AND GEFS 30%. WATERS ACROSS ALL BUT SE PART OF GULF HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY IN PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCEIN SIGNIFICANT AREA OF GALES. AFTER BLENDING IN LATEST GFS WINDS I HAVE LEFT WINDS JUST UNDER GALE FORCE FOR BOTH THESE AREAS THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF DURING THIS TIME WILL DRIVE SEAS 8-10 FT WITH POSSIBLE MAX 11 OR 12 FT ACROSS NW... 8-10 FT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GULF AS WELL AS ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...AND WW3 STILL A BIT LOW. MODEL DEPICTING AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG N END OF SHARP TROFFING OF FRONT IN W GULF SAT AND SUN AND RIDGING ENE ALONG BOUNDARY INTO BIG BEND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF LOW. MODEST AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS AND ATTM WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS NW CARIB FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA...WITH NNE FLOW 15-25 KT TO THE NW OF BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...GULF OF MEXICO FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL YUCATAN...WITH RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTING NLY WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS WARM WATERS OF CURRENT. BUOYS THERE STILL ONLY 5-6 FT BUT SHOULD RISE A FEW FEET IN CHANNEL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE HOLDING THU-FRI. SECOND FRONT TO GRADUALLY CATCH STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MERGE...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NLY FLOW WILL VEER TO NE AND MAINTAIN SEAS IN 4-7 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS. NE 20-25 KT PULSES WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT FOR THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM AT 25-30 KT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING... AND LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS NE AND E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU-SUN AS NW SWELL BEHIND W ATLC FRONT REACHES REGION THU NIGHT AND MERGES WITH MODERATE E TRADE WIND SWELL. A PEAK AT WW3 SPECTRAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS MODEL NOT CURRENTLY HANDLING NW SWELL WELL AND AM SUSPECT OF PARTITIONING PROBLEMS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS E PORTIONS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT E... NOW FROM NEAR 31N63W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH REAL COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CATCHING UP AND FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA ATTM. GALES SUGGESTED THIS MORNING E OF FIRST FRONT AND N OF 26N AND HAVE SHIFTED NE OUT OF AREA. FRONTS TO GRADUALLY MERGE AS LEADING BOUNDARY STALLS DURING NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MEANDERS NE TO SW ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO ERN CUBA THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. STRONG WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL LIFT OUT OF AREA EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING NW SWELL TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT CONFIDENT WITH LAST WW3 RUN ON HANDLING OF EACH PULSE OF SWELL SPREADING INTO AREA S OF 25N...AND HAVE TRIED TO BLEND IN ECWAVE FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...GALE WARNING TODAY. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.