000 AGXX40 KNHC 211901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HEAVIER GFS PERCENTAGE DAY 4 AND 5. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF WATERS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOW THE FRONT... WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE LIMITED DURATION...SO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES ON WED AS HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES AGAIN TO 15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS LATE WED...AND BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 15-20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES EARLY THU MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE...DEPICTED AS A E-W ORIENTATED COLD FRONT ON GRAPHICS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS IMMEDIATELY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT NW OF THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT RAPIDLY INCREASES LATE THU AS THE FRONT RACES S ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER ZONE GMZ011 THU NIGHT. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE GALE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023 ON FRI. CURRENTLY...THE SERF PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40-45 PERCENT AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AND FRI ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST ZONES. A WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND MOVE NE ON SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE BY WED MORNING WITH 20-25 KT E TRADES COVERING ONLY THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AGAIN WED NIGHT AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT 7-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS THU THROUGH SAT AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. MAINLY FRESH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN N OF AREA WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT WITH 20-25 KT BRIEFLY FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. SW FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA... MAINLY N OF 27N W OF 74W AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. GALES WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH WATERS N OF 29N W OF 70W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF 31N BY EARLY WED MORNING WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 25N. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 15-16 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE GALE FORCE WINDS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 26N65W TO EASTERN CUBA. BY THU...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE NE PART. A NORTHERLY SURGE...DEPICTED ON GRAPHICS AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST ON THU NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE FRI...WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS BY FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.