000 AGXX40 KNHC 210652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 152 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HEAVIER GFS PERCENTAGE DAY 4 AND 5. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POST-FRONTAL SEA HEIGHTS. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KT OVER THE NW...N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS...BUT EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE TX COAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS AT 09Z THIS AM...AND EXTEND FROM THE MS DELTA TO EXTREME NE OLD MEXICO AT 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SE WITH ITS PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AT SUNSET TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25-30 KT WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE NW GULF RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SE TX COAST THIS MORNING. NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT TODAY...AND ONLY OVER THE E-CENTRAL WATERS AND FAR SW WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE LIMITED DURATION...SO ONLY BUILDING MAX SEAS TO ABOUT 10 FT BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY RELAXES ON WED WITH 5-10 KT WINDS AROUND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS...AND ANTICYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE E AND SE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES AGAIN TO 15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS LATE WED...AND BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 15-20 KT WED NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES EARLY THU MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE...DEPICTED AS A E-W ORIENTATED COLD FRONT ON GRAPHICS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU AFTERNOON WITH ENE WINDS IMMEDIATELY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT NW OF THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT RAPIDLY INCREASES LATE THU AS THE FRONT RACES S ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW ZONE LATE THU. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE GALE WINDS SPREADING SE ACROSS THE SW GULF ON FRI. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL BE A SUB-GALE EVENT WHILE THE CMC SUGGESTS MINIMAL GALE...AND THE LATEST GFS INDICATES A STRONGER GALE. USED A MODEL BLEND TO CREATE A COMPROMISE...AND MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVE HEIGHTS... SO EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH AREA COVERAGE AND TIMING OF GALE CONDITIONS IN FUTURE PACKAGES. USING THIS MODEL BLEND RESULTS IN A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING AFTER THE GALE ENDS FROM SE TX TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE... WITH AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N96W ON FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERRUN BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. NE 25-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STRONG TO NEAR GALE NOCTURNAL PULSE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10-15N BETWEEN 70-82W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT E TRADES FORECAST ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON WED. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AGAIN WED NIGHT AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT SEAS 6-8 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON THU-SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA LATE WED...WITH A BAND OF 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING S ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON WED AND DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT WITH 20-25 KT BRIEFLY FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO E CUBA...AND A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N68W TO 28N75W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A MINIMAL GALE WARNING IS POSTED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GALE CONDITIONS SHIFTING TO ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT N OF 31N LATE TONIGHT. THIS SMALL AREA OF GALE WINDS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER AREA OF 20-30 KT THAT WILL COVER THE WATERS N OF 25N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TO AS FAR E AS 55W BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 31N60W TO HAITI LATE WED. THE SEGMENT OF THIS MERGED FRONT TO THE N OF 24N WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 55-60W ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...BUT STALL AGAIN EARLY THU NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO DRIFT W AGAIN BY FRI. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT TO THE S OF 24N WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON THU NIGHT. A NORTHERLY SURGE...DEPICTED ON GRAPHICS AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST ON THU NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE FRI...WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS BY FRI MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.