000 AGXX40 KNHC 200721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POST-FRONTAL SEA HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICAN COAST. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS...AND ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF SW WATERS NEAR 23N93W. THE SOUTHERN HIGH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 90W AND THIS WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL SOON LOSE IDENTITY. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT E AND MERGE OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 15 KT OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT. RESIDUAL SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SE GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT OVER THE W- CENTRAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THU SUPPORTING SE-S 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF W OF 93W...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A THIRD E- W ORIENTATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THU WITH ENE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT RACES SE WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW ZONE EARLY FRI. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF WATERS BRIEFLY AROUND MIDDAY FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 11N82W. THIS PERSISTENT BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF NE WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF THE DECAYING TROUGH...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20 KT TODAY...AND 15 KT TONIGHT...WITH ONLY NE 10-15 KT NE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA TUE NIGHT...WITH A BAND OF 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WED NIGHT WITH NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO FRI. NE 25-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THESE STRONG TO NEAR GALE NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE THE AREA FROM 10-16N BETWEEN 70-82W THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON WED. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AGAIN ON THU AND FRI WITH NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS... EXCEPT SEAS 6-8 FT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS TODAY...THEN BUILDING TO 7-8 FT AGAIN ON THU AND FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 28N81W. WESTERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 74-80W NEAR THE FRONT BRIEFLY TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST TUE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE THE PAST FEW RUNS AND INDICATES THAT THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE FRONT TUE EVENING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS SMALL AREA OF GALE WINDS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER AREA OF 20-30 KT THAT WILL COVER THE WATERS N OF 25N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 55W ON TUE NIGHT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 31N59W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT. THIS SEGMENT OF THIS MERGED FRONT TO THE N OF 24N WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 55-60W ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...BUT STALL AGAIN EARLY THU NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO DRIFT W BY FRI. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT TO THE S OF 24N WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON THU NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER...BUT FAST MOVING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST ON THU AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE FRI...WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS BY FRI MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.