000 AGXX40 KNHC 180635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD TILL DAY 4 WITH MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS AND A 1026 SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE TX COAST. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT/SEAS 5-7 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT/SEAS 1-3 ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 25N88W LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS BRIEFLY OVER THE NE WATERS... BUT ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ALONG THIS SECOND COLD FRONT OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE HIGH THEN CENTERED NEAR 25N88W...SURROUNDED AGAIN BY ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...AND 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ALONG THE TX COAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...ALL AHEAD OF A THIRD COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST ON MON NIGHT. THIS THIRD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FL TO 26N93W LATE TUE...THEN SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS ON EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS N-NE 15- 20 KT WINDS/SEAS 3-6 FT FILL IN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON WED AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 29N94W...SURROUNDED BY 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS...AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD TILL DAY 4 WITH MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A BROAD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEAR 11N82W. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MON. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE N-NE FLOW TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 3-6 FT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF THE DECAYING FRONT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT ON SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH ONLY NE 10- 15 KT NE WINDS EXPECTED TUE AND WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 25- 30 KT ON SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...AND REPEAT AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS NOCTURNAL EVENT WILL MAX AT ONLY 25 KT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT SEAS 6-8 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD TILL DAY 4 WITH MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA ATTM WHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE W-NW FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT MERGING WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 31N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. A SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 29N. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL ALSO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 31N58W TO 24N65W TO HAITI BY SUNRISE ON MON. REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT W ON MON NIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY 20-25 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 28N...AND 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N. THIS THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH ON WED NIGHT PUSHING IT A LITTLE FURTHER E TO A POSITION FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.