000 AGXX40 KNHC 171906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS TILL DAY 2 WITH NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY...A MODERATELY-STRENGTHED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE NE MEXICO COAST. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 10 KT/SEAS 2-3 FT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE SE TODAY AND BRIEFLY LOSE IDENTITY ON TONIGHT ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS... REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE MEXICO COAST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE NE MEXICO COAST ON SAT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE CIARBBEAN BY SAT NIGHT. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS AND W-NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS BY SUNSET TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT AS THE SURFACE HIGH REFORMS OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SURROUNDED AGAIN BY ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...AND 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY ACROSS THE SE WATERS ON SAT NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. BY THEN...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT...OR TROUGH...WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS ACCOMPANIED FOLLOWED BY W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-6 FT BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. THE S TO SSW RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS EARLY MON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE LA COAST ON TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FL TO 26N93W LATE TUE...THEN SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS ON TUE NIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS NE 15-20 KT WINDS/SEAS 3-6 FT FILL IN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS TILL DAY 2 WITH NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEAR 10N82W. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ON SAT...AND WILL MERGE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON SUN NIGHT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE N-NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TODAY...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT ON SAT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ALL TO THE W OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN...WITH ONLY NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE TUE INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN PULSE AGAIN AT 25-30 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. NONE OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES GALE FORCE HERE...THOUGH THE 06Z GFS DID BRIEFLY SUGGEST 35 KT FOR EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS NOCTURNAL EVENT SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS TILL DAY 2 WITH NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND THEN REACHES EASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT DRIFTS NW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE W-NW FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SAT AND THIS FRONT CLOSELY APPROACHES THE ORIGINAL FRONT BY SUN MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT MON MORNING...BUT WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST LATE MON NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT... ACCOMPNAIED BY 20-25 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 28N...AND 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.