000 AGXX40 KNHC 170640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD TILL DAY 4 WITH MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KT/SEAS 1-2 FT...EXCEPT FOR 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-3 FT AROUND SW-W PERIPHERY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE SE TODAY AND BRIEFLY LOSE IDENTITY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS... REACHING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE COAST OF MEXICO WHERE IT WILL STALL LATE TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS AND W-NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS BY SUNSET TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT AS THE SURFACE HIGH REFORMS OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SURROUNDED AGAIN BY ANTICYCLONIC 5-10 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...AND 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY ACROSS THE SE WATERS ON SAT NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. BY THEN...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT...OR TROUGH...WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS ACCOMPANIED FOLLOWED BY W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-6 FT BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT...AND SW-W 10-15 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE WATERS EARLY MON...ALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE LA COAST ON MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FL TO 26N93W LATE TUE...THEN SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS ON TUE NIGHT...THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS NE 15- 20 KT WINDS/SEAS 3-6 FT FILL IN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD TILL DAY 4 WITH MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEAR 11N82W...AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING APPROXIMATELY 120 NM TO ITS NW. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE...BUT BROAD...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 11N83W THIS EVENING. REMNANTS OF THIS MERGED FRONT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ON SAT...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MON. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE THE N-NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TODAY...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT ON SAT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ALL TO THE W OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN...WITH ONLY NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE TUE INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN PULSE AGAIN AT 25-30 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS NOCTURNAL EVENT WILL MAX AT 25 KT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR SEA HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD TILL DAY 4 WITH MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MED CONFIDENCE. A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO EXTREME EASTERN CUBA WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING ABOUT 150 NM TO ITS W. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE TODAY INTO A SINGLE STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ON SAT WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT DRIFTS NW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO SAT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY TONIGHT... WITH THE W-NW FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SAT AS THIS THIRD FRONT MERGES WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MERGED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 31N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. A FOURTH SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST LATE SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 28.5N. THIS FOURTH FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MERGED 3 FRONTS ALONG A LINE FROM 31N58W TO 23N65W TO HAITI BY SUNRISE ON MON. REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY TO THE S OF 27N WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W ON MON NIGHT. A FIFTH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COAST LATE MON NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT... ACCOMPNAIED BY 20-25 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 28N...AND 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.