000 AGXX40 KNHC 151750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TODAY...AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED REMAINDER OF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LEADING COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE SE GULF STRETCHING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COLDER AIR AND DROPPING DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE ONLY MODERATE AND 3-5 FT BEHIND IT. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT ARE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THAT SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE SE GULF BY THU EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NE GULF LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...SHIFTING E ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT N OF 28N E OF 90W. ANOTHER FRONT MAY CLIP THE EXTREME NE GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI...SETTLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN NOW S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 21N79W TO 15.5N84W LATE TONIGHT WHILE A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 22N82W TO 19.5N87W BY EARLY THU MORNING. THAT SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM 20N75W TO 15N80W TO 10.5N83W BY EARLY FRI MORNING...BECOMING DIFFUSE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 6-10 FT SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS UP TO 10-12 FT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT WINDS ARE IN PLACE. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N79.5W TO 29N81W. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SECOND REINFORCING FRONT EXCEPT UP TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N W OF 77W THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO AMZ113 N OF 29N THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8-11 FT AS THE FRESH TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N67W TO 23N72W AND STATIONARY TO 21N75W BY EARLY FRI MORNING WHILE WEAKENING AND AS THE PRECEDING FRONT WASHES OUT. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY STALL OUT BY FRI AFTERNOON GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE THEREAFTER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 27N FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH YET ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH THE SAME AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST 20-30 KT W-NW WINDS BEHIND EACH OF THESE FRONTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS. 12Z GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 30 PERCENT BEHIND EACH FRONT...WHILE THE SREF SHOWS A STRIP OF 0-10 PERCENT ALONG AND TO THE N OF 31N. FOR NOW WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT WITH EACH OF THE WEEKEND FRONTS...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE GALES. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS (EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS) WILL PREVAIL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING THU. AMZ113...GALE WARNING THU. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.