000 AGXX40 KNHC 150758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TODAY... AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED REMAINDER OF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS. A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26N95W WITH A RIDGE S TO INLAND SE MEXICO. LATEST BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING NLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION BETWEEN 91W-94W N OF 26N WHERE WINDS ARE W-NW AT 10 KT...AND N OF 26N W OF 94W WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC CONFIRMED THE NLY WINDS. THE REPORTS FROM THE BUOYS SHOW SEAS IN THE AS WELL AS AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT REVEALED SEAS OF 4-6 FT RANGE MOST AREAS... EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 IN THE FAR N AND NE PORTIONS ...AND 1-2 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. THE UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG SSE WITH STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST. IT WILL ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT TO AS FAR S AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THU. N WINDS MAY REACH THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT THAT TIME. THE HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON THU AND FRI ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON THU...BUT WILL SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 25N90W TO FAR NE MEXICO BY DAYBREAK FRI...AND TO SE OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS ONE. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRI...BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 15-20 KT SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL BE WILL CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUN WITH GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE E WINDS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF SUN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE (1-2 FT...EXCEPT FOR 2-4 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF) BY SUN...WITH LINGERING NW SWELLS ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES BLEND OF MWW3 WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0228 ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL POCKET OF WINDS TO 30 KT HIKING THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC LAST NIGHT HIGHLIGHTED LIGHT TO GENTLE ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0046 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE NORTHER WATERS OF THAT SAME AREA. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W- 80W...EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 9-10 FT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION. LOWER SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE SEEN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W...AND 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE CONFINED FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W. HIGHER SEAS OF 7-10 FT DUE TO NE SWELLS ARE S OF 11N W OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE PANAMA CANAL. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC. THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SAT AND SUN. A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY CROSSING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THU AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BORDER OF NE HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SW CARIBBEAN THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT WHICH TIME THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. BY SAT A LINGERING WEAK TROUGH SHOULD BE AROUND IN THE SAME LOCATION. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INDUCE NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU WITH POCKETS OF WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. BY EARLY THU...THESE WINDS WILL BE SEEPING SWD ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND DIMINISH THU. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE S OF 18N W OF 84W LATE WED INTO THU. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE LONG PERIOD PRIMARILY NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 6-7 FT...THEN TO MOSTLY 5-6 FT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL N ATLC TROPICAL WATERS BY LATE THU INTO FRI WITH 6-7 FT SEAS LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BY FRI...THE NE SWELL COMPONENT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN E SWELL COMPONENT BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 6-9 FT SAT AND SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE MWW3 WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N76W SW TO JUST ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST...AND FAR NW CUBA AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT BUOY DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY MODERATE SLY FLOW E OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF MODERATE ELY FLOW IN THE FAR SE PORTION...AND BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC LAST NIGHT CAPTURED SOME OF THIS FLOW. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF 24N E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT W OF 79W N OF 27N...AND 1-2 W AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO W CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND TO FAR EASTERN CUBA APPROACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU EVENING INTO FRI. A STRONG SURGE OF NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY MOVING DRY COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WATERS THU BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS SURGE WILL BRING COLD DENSE AIR THAT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER USHERING IN A QUICK EPISODE OF GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS MUCH OF ZONES 111 AND 113. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO AROUND 10 OR 11 FT UNDER THE GALE FORCE WINDS. BY LAT FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO WEAKENING FROM NEAR 31N66W TO VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL HAVE ABATED BY THEN AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE GENTLE SIDE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST AT THAT TIME. FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N76W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA EARLY SAT...THEN WEAKEN AS REACHES FROM NEAR 31N66W TO VICINITY SE BAHAMAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SAT NIGHT...AND OVER THE FAR E AND SE WATERS SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT W TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SIDE OVER THE NW WATERS AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING QUITE RAPIDLY. NLY WINDS ELSWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MUCH LIGHTER...IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE. FUTURE FORECAST FOR THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE REFLECTIVE ON FUTURE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING E OF 78W THU. AMZ113...GALE WARNING W OF 75W THU INTO THU NIGHT. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.