000
AGXX40 KNHC 141808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
108 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT FROM FLORIDA BIG BENT TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT
MOVE QUICKLY SE OF THE GULF EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND ALSO QUICKLY MOVE SE
ACROSS THE GULF WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE WED AND THU. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
WHILE WEAKENING THU AND FRI ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 26N90W AND TO FAR NE
MEXICO BY EARLY FRI AND TO THE FAR SE GULF FRI AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
SE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FRI AND SAT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR
WAVES BLEND OF MWW3 WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING THEN EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY WED AND FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF OF NE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WED
EVENING THEN WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
EASTERN NICARAGUA THU THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY BECOME
DIFFUSE INTO FRI TRANSITIONING INTO A TROUGH BY SAT. TRADE WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED SEAS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRI AND SAT.
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SEE NE SWELL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
TUE...BUT E SWELL WILLS BUILD SEAS AGAIN BY SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE MWW3 WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATER TODAY AND EXTEND
FROM NEAR 31N76W TO SE FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND FROM 31N74W TO
CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED AND FROM 31N72W TO E/CENTRAL CUBA BY WED
EVENING AND FROM 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND BECOME
STATIONARY TO VICINITY WINDWARD PASSAGE THU EVENING INTO FRI AND
DISSIPATE INTO SAT. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
AND N CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SAT AS IT ALSO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES.
  
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
AMZ113...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.