000 AGXX40 KNHC 140749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST WED JAN 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF PENSACOLA SW TO 25N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. A 1024 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD TO THE SW GULF. LATEST BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SW 15- 20 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...AND SE TO S 10-15 KT WINDS S E OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. BEHIND THE FRONT BUOY DATA...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0252 UTC CONFIRMED NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF ABOUT 25N. LIGHTER NW-N WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 25N. THE REPORTS FROM THE BUOYS AS WELL AS AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT REVEALED SEAS OF 4-6 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POCKETS OF MAX SEA VALUES TO 7 FT. LOWER SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE IN THE FAR NW GULF...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS E OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TSTMS IN LINES E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N ARE GENERATING HIGHER SEAS AT TIMES. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA SW TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND JUST SE OF THE GULF EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO MUCH OF THE NE GULF LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT TO AS FAR S AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA WED INTO THU. N WINDS MAY REACH THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THU AND FRI ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON THU...BUT WILL SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY SW TO NEAR 26N90W TO FAR NE MEXICO BY DAYBREAK FRI...THEN TO THE FAR SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT EXITS THE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS ONE. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRI...BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 15-20 KT SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE MWW3/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0248 ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF NE-E 30 KT WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W WITH A SMALL POCKET OF WINDS TO NEAR MINIMAL GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. THE 0108 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEA WITH LIGHTER NE WINDS OF MAINLY 15 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS REPORTING NE- E WINDS OF 25 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW THAT WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE LIGHTER...NE-E 10-15 KT W OF 79W AND E 10 KT BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND 19N FROM 78W AND 81W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-80W EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF 9-14 FT SEAS IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NW OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 78W AS NOTED IN AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. LOWER SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE SEEN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W...AND 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE CONFINED FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W. HIGHER SEAS OF 7-9 FT DUE TO NE SWELLS ARE S OF 11N W OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE PANAMA CANAL. SIMILAR SEAS IN LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRI AND SAT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE FURTHER SEWD TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE VICINITY GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY WED...THEN EASTERN CUBA TO BORDER OF NE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WED EVENING...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN NICARAGUA THU AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE. BY SAT A LINGERING WEAK TROUGH SHOULD BE AROUND IN THE SAME LOCATION. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO INDUCE NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU WITH POCKETS OF WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. BY EARLY THU...THESE WINDS WILL BE SEEPING SWD ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND DIMINISH THU. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE S OF 18N W OF 84W LATE WED INTO THU. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE LONG PERIOD PRIMARILY NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 6-7 FT...THEN TO MOSTLY 5-6 FT IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL N ATLC TROPICAL WATERS BY LATE THU INTO FRI WITH 6-7 FT SEAS LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BY FRI...THE NE SWELL COMPONENT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN E SWELL COMPONENT BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 6-9 FT INTO SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE MWW3/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF BERMUDA SW TO 31N72W AND TO S FLORIDA. BUOY DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT E WINDS IN THE SE PART...AND S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE FAR NW PART. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0112 AND 1152 UTC HIGHLIGHTED THESE WINDS AS WELL. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS. LOWER SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR SW OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE PRESENT. THE S-SW WINDS IN THE FAR NW PART PRECEDE THE NEXT FRONT POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MARKS THE LEAD OF SERIES OF FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO SE FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED...THEN SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N72W TO E/CENTRAL CUBA BY WED EVENING...AND FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND STATIOANRY TO VICINITY WINDWARD PASSAGE THU EVENING AND INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO SAT. MODELS DEPICT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT...AND QUICKLY REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SAT AS IT ALSO BEGINS TO WEAKEN. 10M WIND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS OF GALE FORCE...IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 111 AND 113 IN THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-25 KT FRI AND SAT. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TO AROUND 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT IN ZONE 111 BY SAT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.