000 AGXX40 KNHC 130800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS ALL TIME PERIODS EXCEPT NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WED THROUGH FRI. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF WATERS...WHILE A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SE U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 24N95W. LATEST BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE E OF 89W...E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE W OF 89W AND SE-S 10-15 KT N OF THE RIDGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE 15-20 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT IN THE SW PORTION...AND 2-3 FT IN THE NE PORTION. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL A SEND A SERIES OF FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF PORTION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD REACHING A POSITION FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO INLAND NE MEXICO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM APALACHICOLA BAY TO INLAND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN LOSE ITS PUNCH AND WEAKEN AS IT EXIST THE FAR SE GULF EARLY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN N WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE FAR SW GULF INTO EARLY TUE. THE HIGH PRES THEN WEAKEN TUE AFTERNOON WITH WITH DIMINISHING...HOWEVER THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEGINNING ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO RACE SEWD TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF ON WED. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20- 25 KT TO AS FAR S AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA WED INTO THU. N WINDS MAY REACH THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT NEAR AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED INTO THU. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THU AND FRI ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF THUS AND FRI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE MWW3/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF ABOUT 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...EXCEPT FOR NE 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER WINDS E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE W OF 80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AREA...AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. REPORTED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT S OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-80W EXCEPT FOR 9-12 FT SEAS S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-79W LOWER SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR 7-9 FT SEAS IN NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN STRENGTH OVER THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SEWD BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE ON FRI. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE NLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED INTO EARLY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST AS NEEDED. LONG PERIOD PRIMARILY NE SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES INTO MON AT WHICH TIME THEY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT...AND FURTHER TO 6 FT BY WED AND THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE MWW3/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO ALONG THE COAST OF NW CUBA. HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE. THE 0130 UTC ASCAT PASS NICELY SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE FRONT. BOTH SHIP REPORTS AND THE SAME 0130 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER THE SE PORTION... ...AND GENERALLY MODERATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR GENTLE WINDS IN THE NW PORTION. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND 3-5 FT NW OF THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 79W. SEAS W OF 79W N OF 27N ARE 2-3 FT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVER THE NW PORTION...WINDS BECOME SLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY ON TUE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO WESTERN CUBA TUE NIGHT ...FROM NEAR 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED...FROM NEAR 31N72W TO E/CENTRAL CUBA BY WED EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THU...THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N66W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND STATIOANRY TO EASTERN CUBA BY THU EVENING AND INTO FRI. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT...WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 29N. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THU AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.