000 AGXX40 KNHC 120940 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 440 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 UPDATED WEATHER OVER THE SE GULF MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS SEEN ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST. LATEST BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING MODERATE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 89W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS W OF 89W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-6 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE SW PORTION...AND ALSO IN THE SE PORTION. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE AND IN THE SE GULF PORTION THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MON...AND ALSO QUICKLY MOVE SE OF THE GULF EARLY TUE NIGHT. STRONGER NLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AT WHICH TIME IT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WED FOLLOWED BY NLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT. BY WED NIGHT...THE NLY FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF...AND DIMINISH ON THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF WHILE IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS WILL SET UP MODERATE SLY FLOW OVER THE FAR WRN GULF DURING THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED IN CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS USED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0150 ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT MINIMAL NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SMALL AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GALE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-12 FT SEAS SURROUND THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 18N BETWEEN 70W- 80W. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BY WHICH TIME THE STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL HAVE MIGRATED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE GALE WINDS TO LOWER TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. LONG PERIOD PRIMARILY NE SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES INTO MON AT WHICH TIME THEY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT...AND FURTHER TO 6 FT BY WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WED. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT NOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA JUST ALONG THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO INLAND THE FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED. THE 0154 UTC ASCAT PASS VIVIDLY DISPLAYED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SLY WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO NEAR 77W. THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY BEING GENERATED BY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY RACING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRES TO ITS E. ELSEWHERE BOTH SHIP REPORTS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0152 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER THE SE PORTION...AND FRESH E-SE WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION. MODERATE SE-S WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN NE TO E SWELLS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA AND TO WESTERN CUBA BY DAYBREAK TODAY...FROM NEAR 31N65W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. SEAS OF 8-11 FT N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 9 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. ON MON THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 28N...AND TO N OF 31N BY LATE MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS WSW TO THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE NW PORTION...WINDS BECOME SLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO WESTERN CUBA BY TUE EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY WED NIGHT...AND FROM 26N65W TO VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE ON THU. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE LOWER THAN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE W TO NW AT 15-20 KT TUE...THEN W TO NW 20-25 KT WED AND NW-N 20-25 KT ON THU FOR ZONE 113. IN ZONE 111 ON THU THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW-N AT 15-20 KT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W TODAY. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.