000 AGXX40 KNHC 110800 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE NE GULF. LATEST BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS E OF 90W...AND SIMILAR WINDS FROM THE S-SW IN DIRECTION W OF 90W. THE 0354 UTC ASCAT PASS SUPPORTED THE S- SW WINDS W OF 90W. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE SW PORTION AND 1-2 FT SEAS N OF 26N E OF 88W...AND FROM 24N TO 26N E OF 88W. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF REACHING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND DISSIPATE IN THE SE GULF SUN. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST LIKELY LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ACROSS MUCH OF THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON...AND ALSO QUICKLY MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. STRONGER NLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE AT WHICH TIME IT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA INTO WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0210 ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT MINIMAL NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SMALL AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT IN NE SWELLS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GALE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-12 FT SEAS SURROUND THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 18N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND ALSO FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W-70W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUN AFTERNOON BY WHICH TIME THE STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL HAVE MIGRATED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE GALE WINDS TO LOWER TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL LIKELY TO LEAD TO ANOTHER EPISODE OF GALE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FOR MAINLY EARLY MON BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TO BELOW GALE FORCE. LONG PERIOD PRIMARILY NE SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 7- 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST MON...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE 8 FT INTO WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WED. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH SHIP REPORTS AND ASCAT PASS FROM 0210 LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE- E WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 24N WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL STRENGTHEN N OF ABOUT 27N W OF 70W BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N74W TO JUST SE OF S FLORIDA AND TO WESTERN CUBA BY DAYBREAK SUN...FROM NEAR 31N65W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W BY SUN EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY 25-30 KT N OF 30N AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ON MON THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 28N...AND TO N OF 31N BY LATE MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS WSW TO THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE NW PORTION...WINDS BECOME SLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT NIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO WESTERN CUBA BY TUE EVENING...AND FROM NEAR 31N72W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE ON WED. SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT...THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIMILAR WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.