000 AGXX40 KNHC 100758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC WSW ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N89W. LATEST BUOYS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 89W...AND NE TO E WINDS E OF 89W. THE 0234 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWS THE CHANGE WIND DIRECTION FROM E TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...TO NE TO THE NW OF OF THE FRONT TO 89W. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SEAS OF 2- 3 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS...AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION NEAR THE CENTRAL AND S TEXAS COASTS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE S AND SW MOST ZONES BY LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY SAT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTS NW INTO THE GULF LATE FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY ACROSS MUCH OF THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE IN THE SE GULF SUN BEFORE DEVELOPING A RESIDUAL TROUGH WESTWARD TO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUN. NLY FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SEE OUT AHEAD IN SLY FLOW THAT BRIEFLY DEVELOPS AND THEN QUICKLY PULLS ENE AWAY FROM THE NE GULF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON AND QUICKLY MOVE SE OF THE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. STRONGER NLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE AT WHICH TIME ITS BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 06 UTC A SHIP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REPORTED NE WINDS OF 35 KT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN NE SWELLS JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GALE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-12 FT SEAS SURROUND THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 17N BETWEEN 69W-80W AND ALSO FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W-69W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON BY WHICH TIME THE STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL HAVE MIGRATED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE GALE WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. NEXT WEEK FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHORT PERIOD E SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT...THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF COLOMBIA. LONGER PERIOD NE TO E SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...MEDIUM FOR MON AND LOW FOR TUE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N65W SW TO 28N72W TO S FLORIDA. RELATIVLEY STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE. LATEST ASCAT PASSES REVEAL STRONG NE TO E FLOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE ALSO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TODAY...AND TO N OF 31N TONIGHT. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 73W BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N65W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W BY LATE SUN AS IT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT AND GREATER AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONFINED TO N OF 28N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ON MON THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 28N...AND TO N OF 31N BY LATE MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS WSW TO THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE NW PORTION...WINDS BECOME SLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY ON TUE...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO WESTERN CUBA BY LATE TUE. SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE ATTENDANT BY INCREASING WINDS BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SPEEDS...PERHAPS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.