000 AGXX40 KNHC 091932 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN MEDIUM. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY...AS 1037 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA. BUOYS ARE STILL SHOWING 15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF...WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS REPORTING 20 KT. SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 8 FT IN THIS AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT DIRECTLY SOUTH OF 1037 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...MAINTAINING FRESH E WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE S TO SW BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS WRT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT IS EXPECTED ENTER THE NW GULF BY EARLY SAT AND TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF...UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE MIGRATING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE SE STATES BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE FAR SE GULF LATE SUN INTO MON...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N AGAIN. THERE LESS ACCORD AMONG GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON AND TUE...WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH THROUGH MID WEEK REGARDING THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE TUE OVER THE NE GULF...AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE FRONT THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. FORECAST FOR TUE MODIFIES THE GFS WITH A SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF MON...WITH THE FRONT STALLING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUE. SEAS FOLLOW MWW3 OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA RECEIVED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT INDICATED NUMEROUS 30-34 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS ARE ALSO UP TO 14 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GALE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-12 FT SEAS SURROUND THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHORT PERIOD E SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT...THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF COLOMBIA. LONGER PERIOD NE TO E SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...MEDIUM FOR MON AND LOW FOR TUE. A MID/UPPER IMPULSE IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NE UNITED STATES...PROVIDING MODEST SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N60W TO 26N70W. WEST OF THAT A STATIONARY FROM CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW STRONG NE TO E FLOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A TRAIN OF SHOWERS INTO E CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUOYS FARTHER EAST ARE STARTING TO VEER MORE SE...INDICATING THE FRONT IS POISED TO START DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS EXPECT TO REACH ALONG 29N BY EARLY FRI...BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CALLS FOR STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 73W BY LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH ALONG 31N65W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W BY LATE SUN. WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT WILL BE RELEGATED TO N OF 28N ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LESS REGARDING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR NORTH OF 25N...IMPARTING SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS INTO THE FORECAST OVER WATERS N OF 28N WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS REFLECT WWIII GUIDANCE...BUT MODIFIED TO AGREE WITH STRONGER WIND FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING INTO SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.