000 AGXX40 KNHC 090716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN MEDIUM. 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE N CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. TO THE WEST...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING... SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR DALLAS TEXAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/FRONTS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH A POCKET OF 7-9 FT SEAS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF 90W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS E OF 90W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRES LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM/LOW OVER TEXAS DAMPENS AND STALLS OUT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE MIGRATING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. THERE REMAINS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE N AND NE GULF...AND ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT PEAK MUCH ABOVE 20 KT SAT AND SUN BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUN INTO MON. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE FRONT TO THE EASTERN GULF BY MON EVENING. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA RECEIVED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT INDICATED NUMEROUS 30-34 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. SEAS ARE ALSO UP TO 14 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GALE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-12 FT SEAS SURROUND THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHORT PERIOD E SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT...THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF COLOMBIA. LONGER PERIOD NE TO E SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N60W TO 27N72W THEN IS A WARM FRONT TO 25N80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE FRONT (SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT INSIDE BAHAMAS). THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO 28N80W LATE TONIGHT (THU NIGHT)...THEN MOVING N OF 31N BY LATE FRI NIGHT. WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STRONG AS HIGH PRES LIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SAT...AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN...BEFORE STALLING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON. STRONG WINDS AND SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 28N LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SUN AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING THROUGH SAT. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.