000 AGXX40 KNHC 081830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN MEDIUM. 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SHIFTING RAPIDLY NE. FARTHER WEST...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER W TEXAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES EXITING TO THE EAST IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PERSIST S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE NE GULF...WITH 5 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE LARGELY IN DECAYING NE SWELL. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRES LIFTS NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THU...AND THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS DAMPENS OUT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL INDICATE AN AREA OF MOISTURE MIGRATING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. THERE REMAINS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THE PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. ALTHOUGH THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND 12 UTC UKMET REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE TROUGH...NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATED DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW AS IN EARLIER RUNS. GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION LIMITED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT PEAK MUCH ABOVE 20 KT SAT AND SUN BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUN INTO MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG NE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD HOWEVER...AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO TO 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE FRONT DISSIPATES. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHORT PERIOD E SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT...THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF COLOMBIA. LONGER PERIOD NE TO E SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 28N67W THEN STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST N OF THE FRONT. BUOYS ARE ALSO SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT N SLIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN STALL ALONG ROUGHLY 28N THROUGH FRI AS EITHER A STATIONARY FRONT OR SHEAR LINE. WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STRONG AS HIGH PRES LIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SAT...AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN...BEFORE STALLING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON. STRONG WINDS AND SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 28N LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SUN AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.