000 AGXX40 KNHC 071804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 104 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS IN THE 4-8 FT RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ENE INTO THE N ATLC WATERS WED AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN FROM WED MORNING TO LATE WED NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKS END. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD SAT ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS SAT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS PAST SUN AND MON WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT RANGE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN NE SWELL. THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WED NIGHT. COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADES HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS N OF THE AREA HAS RETREATED EASTWARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD N OF THE AREA BY WED WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU...AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 9-12 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 13N/14N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 8-11 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 4-7 FT W OF THE FRONT AND BAHAMAS. SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE E OF THE FRONT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N62W TO 29N65W TO 27N68W TO 21N77W BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE THROUGH WED. CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA WED WHICH WILL HELP LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY N AS A WARM FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT. THE REMNANT BOUNDARY OF A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DROP S OF 31N FRI...STRETCHING FROM NEAR 26N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.