000 AGXX40 KNHC 060754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SE GULF FROM 26N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF... EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N90W TO 22N96W TO 21N97W AS OF 06Z. TIMELY 03Z ASCAT-B AND 04Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF THE FRONT...UP TO 40 KT JUST E OF THE COAST OF NE MEXICO. NDBC BUOYS AND OTHER PLATFORMS IN THE NW GULF ARE GUSTING WELL ABOVE MINIMAL GALE FORCE AS WELL. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GMZ017>GMZ025 (ALL CENTRAL AND SW GULF ZONES) WITH A GALE WARNING FOR GMZ011>015 (ALL NORTHERN GULF ZONES) FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGHER AT ALL AVAILABLE BUOYS THAN MMW3 AND NWPS GUIDANCE...ALREADY 10-14 FT AT MANY SITES. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 26N82W TO 20N94W TO 18N94W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL PUSH SE OF THE GULF AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (MON NIGHT). GALE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING WITH GMZ011 AT 18Z TODAY...WITH ALL GULF ZONES BELOW GALE FORCE BY 18Z TUE. FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE NW GULF BY THIS TIME TUE NIGHT AS THE VERY IMPRESSIVE HIGH CENTER ACCOMPANYING THE DRAMATIC ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES TO THE E OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE W OF 90W LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E FLOW E OF 90W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... EXCEPT WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO MAINLY MODERATE LEVELS BASIN WIDE THU THROUGH FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SLIGHTLY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL DIMINISH THERE TO 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. THAT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 00Z TUE/THIS EVENING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL (UP TO 17 FT) ARRIVING BEHIND IT. A GALE WARNING BEGINS AT 00Z TUE FOR AMZ011...SPREADING TO AMZ013 BY 06Z TUE...THEN TO AMZ017/GULF OF HONDURAS BY 12Z TUE. CONDITIONS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FOR ALL NW CARIBBEAN ZONES BY 18Z TUE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO STALL OUT. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM 22N80W TO 18N86W TO 16N88W BY THIS TIME TONIGHT (MON NIGHT)...THEN FROM 21N78W TO 18N81.5W TO 16N86W BY TUE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTERNOON WITH REMNANT NORTHERLY SWELL SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. MEANWHILE...TRADES WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED MORNING AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES REBUILDS AND THE FRONT WEAKENS/WASHES OUT. THE STRONGER TRADES WILL SPREAD TO ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN...BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 9-12 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 13N/14N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 8-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ...UPDATE IN PROGRESS... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO 29N81W MON AFTERNOON THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO 31N71W TO 27N74W TO 22N79W BY LATE MON NIGHT STALLING JUST SE OF THERE BY TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT INTO THU. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. GMZ013...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ015...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ017...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ019...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TUE. GMZ021...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. AMZ013...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...GALE WARNING TUE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE. AMZ113...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.