000
AGXX40 KNHC 051800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

UPDATED SW N ATLC FOR GALE WARNING

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IN THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO WESTERN CUBA WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY REACHING FROM 30N86W
TO 26N91W TO 21N97W TONIGHT AND MOVING SE OF THE GULF BY MON
EVENING. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS ON TUE AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE
WATERS W OF 90W BY WED NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTHERN TROPICAL
WATERS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE MON. STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO GALE
FORCE IN AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON
NIGHT...WITH STRONG NE WINDS SPREADING E ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN DIMINISHING ON WED AND THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MON AND
MON NIGHT.

ROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON EXTENDING FROM
31N77W TO 29N81W MON AFTERNOON THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO 31N71W TO
27N74W TO 22N79W BY LATE MON NIGHT STALLING JUST SE OF THERE BY
TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT
INTO THU. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
N OF 27N.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ015...GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ019...GALE WARNING MON INTO TUE. 
GMZ021...GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 
GMZ023...GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. 
GMZ025...GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...GALE WARNING MON INTO TUE. 
AMZ113...GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.