000 AGXX40 KNHC 050653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 153 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS SE OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WERE NOT RAIN-FLAGGED/NOT CONTAMINATED AND THIS SEEMS FEASIBLE GIVEN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SURFACE LOW PRES TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A SHARP AND DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE VICINITY. GIVEN SUCH...A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR GMZ021/SE GULF UNTIL 12Z TODAY...AFTER WHICH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SLACKEN AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE GFS DID PREVIOUSLY INDICATE 20-25 KT WINDS IN THAT AREA...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AT 30 KT. THE FORECAST GRIDDED FIELDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH E-SE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE NW-N OF THE WARM FRONT. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT NW OF THE WARM FRONT...AND LIKELY UP TO 11 FT SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY WHILE A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS APPROACHES THE NW ZONES. THAT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...QUICKLY RACING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEFORE PUSHING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF ZONES (GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES UP TO 80 PERCENT)...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY THAT GALES WILL ALSO BE SEEN IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF (ENTIRE ZONES THERE COVERED IN SOLID 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE GFS AND OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE)...AT THE VERY LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THOSE ZONES. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS WERE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THESE SAME ZONES IN A SIMILAR FASHION WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THIS NEXT FRONT IS EVEN STRONGER WITH A COLDER AND MORE DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND IT...WITH MORE SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...AND WITH LITTLE AIR MASS MODIFICATION ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO IT HITTING THE GULF WATERS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN GMZ011 ALTHOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A GALE WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE FOR NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NW GULF SPREADING SE BY TUE...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NW GULF YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST SHIFTS EASTWARD TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW GULF WED THROUGH THU...WITH MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION ABOVE...RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE N. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ011 UNTIL 12Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGING NE OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN (UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA)...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 11N/12N. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT IN THE E CARIBBEAN...AND 8-12 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN TRADES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON AS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT FRONT IS PROGGED TO BLAST THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER BY TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND REMAIN THROUGH WED. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO AMZ011 WITH A LOWER CHANCE POSSIBLE IN AMZ013...AND TO THE S IN AMZ017/GULF OF HONDURAS BEHIND THE FRONT. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL DEEPEN AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NE-E GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEADLINED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MON AND MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ALONG 27N WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS N OF THE FRONT...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS S OF THE FRONT (LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA). PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE-E...WHILE A REMNANT TROUGH BECOMES MORE N TO S ORIENTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THAT TROUGHING WILL THEN LINGER IN THE NW PORTION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION ALONG AND TO THE N OF 31N WHICH WILL SHIFT NE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR GALES IN AMZ111-113 LOW (GEFS AND SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE BOTH 0 ACROSS THESE ZONES) SO WILL KEEP WINDS CAPPED AT 30 KT IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE (WHICH ALSO CURRENTLY MATCHES WITH THE E FLORIDA WFO FORECASTS) WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CASE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS HIGHER FOR AMZ111-113. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY MON MORNING...QUICKLY EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO CUBA ALONG 80W BY MON EVENING...THEN FROM 30N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY TUE EVENING... THEN WILL STALL FROM 29N65W TO ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY WED MORNING AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THU. THE STALLED OUT FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NW AND N LATE WED THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GMZ015...GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GMZ019...GALE WARNING MON INTO TUE. GMZ021...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT. GMZ025...GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.