000 AGXX40 KNHC 040747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED S OF THE AREA HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE-E MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN...AND E-SE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN WHERE RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. SOME LOCAL WINDS TO STRONG LEVEL ARE ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE S...WHILE REMNANT 8 TO 10 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IS S OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 25N87W TO 23N94W TO 19N96W...WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THIS REMNANT SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE OLD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK INTO THE SE GULF AS A WARM FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE SE GULF INDICATING A BULLSEYE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE GMZ015 AND GMZ021 BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT/SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. WFO BROWNSVILLE TX ALREADY HAS A GALE WATCH IN PLACE FOR GUSTS TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GMZ017 AND GMZ023 BEGINNING 06 UTC MON (NOW THE 48 HOUR POINT IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE). THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR 20-30 KT ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MON NIGHT...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SHOWS EXPLICIT 35 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 00Z GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 90 PERCENT IN GMZ015 BY 12Z MON SPREADING INTO THE SW GULF THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE THE GEFS ALSO SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AREA OF UP TO 70 PERCENT IN ZONES GMZ015...GMZ019-021 LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. THE LATEST AVAILABLE SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES (BASED ON 18Z RUN) SHOWED A BAND OF 10 PERCENT SWEEPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF FOR AT THE VERY LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE A WARNING MAY BE JUSTIFIED EVEN FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KT OR GREATER...SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIVING DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. THAT CURRENTLY IS SNOW COVERED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES INTO THE GULF. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF ONLY SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN GMZ023 WITH 20-30 KT ELSEWHERE...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN GMZ023-025 BUT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE GULF MON EVENING AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE GULF INTO TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE NW GULF BY TUE EVENING AROUND THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AREA WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING THROUGH TUE. THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS STALLED OUT FROM 22N80W TO 20N85W TO 16N87W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WERE INDICATED IN THE LEE OF CUBA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS TRAVERSING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SHOWED MUCH STRONGER WINDS AT ELEVATED LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NDBC BUOY 42056 HAVING QUICKLY JUMPED UP FROM 6 TO 11 FT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE PORTION E OF THE YUCATAN BECOMING A REMNANT TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...UP TO 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS NOTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 7-10 FT SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LIFTS BACK OF THE AREA. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 13N BY TONIGHT/SAT NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH IN THE CARIBBEAN MON AND MON NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THAT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL MON EVENING/NIGHT WITH FRESH TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE EXPLICIT 35 KT WINDS IN AMZ011 BY 06Z TUE WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS SPREADING INTO AMZ013 AND AMZ017/GULF OF HONDURAS THEREAFTER. THE 00Z GEFS INDICATES 60 PERCENT 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES IN AMZ011 BY 06Z TUE...UP TO 30 PERCENT IN AMZ013 ...AND 10 PERCENT IN AMZ017...THEN 0 PERCENT THROUGHOUT BY 18Z TUE. MEANWHILE THE 18Z SREF (LATEST AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING) SHOWS UP TO 15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE SAME ZONES. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT ALTHOUGH A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. BY WED... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT WHILE 20-30 KT WINDS SPREAD IN ALL THE WAY TO E OF NICARAGUA. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MON AND MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 27N66W TO 22N79W...WITH THE SW PORTION BECOMING STATIONARY. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE MAINLY DIMINISHED TO FRESH LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING. REMNANT SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-14 FT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT UP TO 8 FT IN AMZ127. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH E OF 65W LATER TODAY WHILE THE REMAINDER FULLY STALLS OUT...THEN WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT INTO SUN AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS WITH RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE E. THIS RIDGING WILL PUSH IN E-SE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SE BASIN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 00Z GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH BY SUN WITH IT SHOWING LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH A BULLSEYE OF 30 KT WINDS OR GREATER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NW CORNER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON WITH AT LEAST 30 KT EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS DOES EXPLICITLY SHOW 35 KT WINDS...WHILE THE 00Z GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 0-10 PERCENT ALONG 31N FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE LATEST SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW NOTHING GREATER THAN 0 PERCENT WITH THE FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N78W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA BY 18Z MON...THEN FROM 31N69W TO EASTERN CUBA BY TUE MORNING...THEN WILL LIKELY STALL AS IT STRETCHES FROM NEAR 29N65W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY WED MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSISTING WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE FRONT AND E-SE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.