000
AGXX40 KNHC 031811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
111 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE.
WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH WITH SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY SUBSIDING BY
SAT MORNING AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON REACHING FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF NEAR
18N95W BY MON MORNING...THEN MOVING SE OF THE GULF MON EVENING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS
BY TUE NIGHT.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS EXIST...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND 8-11 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE RIDGE 
WILL MOVE E LATER TODAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ALONG 19N/20N TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK
TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MON. THE AREA NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL SEE WINDS UP TO 30 KT...POSSIBLY
HIGHER...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE
WARNING IS NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS/EARLY MORNING LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT...AND AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL
THEN WILL STALL FROM 27N66W TO 22N78W LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES SUN.
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW ZONES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF
BAHAMAS ON SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST ON SUN EVENING...AND STALL FROM 27N65W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE. 
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE. 
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.