000 AGXX40 KNHC 030702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR PORT CHARLOTTE THROUGH THE S CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N94W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY SOUTH FLORIDA WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY. LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING ASCAT AND OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 34-40 KT WIND BARBS IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GMZ013 AND GMZ015...AS WELL AS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF/GMZ019 AND SE GULF GMZ021 WITH A STRIP OF AT LEAST 34 KT LIKELY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. MEANWHILE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 34-40 KT WINDS ALREADY IN THE SW GULF/GMZ023 WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING INTO GMZ025. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 18Z ACROSS THE GULF AS THE FRONT PUSHES E-SE OF THE BASIN. MEANWHILE SEAS OF 8-14 FT ARE ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHEST IN THE SW GULF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 06Z SAT WITH SOME REMNANT SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO SAT MORNING. BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AND WINDS BECOME E-SE WITH 3-6 FT SEAS INTO SUN MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT ACROSS THE GULF AND THE CHANCE FOR GALES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GEFS 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW 10-20 PERCENT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT BOUNDARY. LATEST SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES DO NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME YET FOR THE NEXT EVENT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AND DENSE 1040 MB HIGH PRES SAGGING S ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH U.S. BY LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS EXIST...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 8-11 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE E TODAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SEEPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 19N/20N FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MON. THE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL SEE WINDS UP TO 30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A BRIEF GALE WARNING IS NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS/EARLY MORNING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE E MON WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND ENABLE A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 30-40 KT WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALSO LIKELY 30-40 KT. THE FRONT WILL VERY QUICKLY PUSH E-SE AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N69W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO 30 KT OR LESS. LARGE SEAS UP TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG 31N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY STALL AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THEN. REMNANT 8-11 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUN AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON AND WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA MON EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM 30N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY TUE EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING BEHIND IT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO COLD AND DENSE 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH U.S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...GALE WARNING UNTIL 12Z FRI. GMZ015...GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRI. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRI. GMZ021...GALE WARNING 12Z UNTIL 18Z FRI. GMZ023...GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRI. GMZ025...GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRI. AMZ113...GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRI. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.