000 AGXX40 KNHC 291936 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 18 UTC MON...THEN USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...WITH FEW MINOR TWEAKS IN SW GULF TUE. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FAR W CENTRAL AND ZONES THROUGH DAY 3 WITH ACTUAL AREAL COVERAGE OF GALES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA SSW TO INLAND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE SE TO S WINDS SE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF UP TO 6 FT IN THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD REACHING FROM NEAR NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO THE FAR NW YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...THEN STALL FROM FLORIDA KEYS TO 22N E OF 90W ON MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE SE...MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT FROM SW FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT EARLY ON MON AS HIGH PRES SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE. BY LATE TUE...THE STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ALONG 22N WESTWARD TO 94W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S INTO THE SW GULF. HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THEN WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONFINED FROM THE FRONT N TO 27N. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WED AND THU WHILE DISSIPATING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRES THAT AGAIN FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE SEQUENCE OF FRONTS AFFECTING THE GULF WILL CONTINUE AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW EARLY ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE EASTWARD REACHING FROM FROM SW FLORIDA TO NORTHERN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU...AND TO SE OF THE AREA ON FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND IT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER REPEAT OF GALE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. WILL ADJUST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD PENDING THE EVALUATION OF FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 18 UTC ON WED...THEN USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH BUOY DATA AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS GENERALLY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG MOSTLY E WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ...WITH MODERATE NE TO E WINDS 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE STRONGER NE-E WINDS IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE ARE NOTED. IN ADDITION... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ALONG...AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS OF THE 8-12 FT RANGE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOWER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA. LOWER SEAS OF 4-6 FT. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE ACCORDING TO BUOYS THERE DUE TO PERSISTENT NE TO E SWELLS PROPAGATING THROUGH THAT AREA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME SMALL AREAS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE 7-8 FT RANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN S AMERICA HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN PORTIONS TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL STALL OVER THE FAR SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON THROUGH WED AS IT WEAKENS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL SHOULD INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL. 12 UTC MWW3 BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE FAR NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN JUST A FEW HOURS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NW WATER BETWEEN ABOUT 75W AND 79W... AND IN THE 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N78W SW TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH BY THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N72W TO MIAMI COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA MON MORNING...FROM NEAR 31N71W TO THE NO0RTHERN BAHAMAS AND STATIONARY TO SE FLORIDA MON EVENING NIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTERN TO NEAR 31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY TUE...WHILE THE REST OF THE REMAINS STATIONARY TO S FLORIDA. ON WED...THE ENTIRE FRONT BECOMES STATIOANRY ROUGHLY ALONG 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA W OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT LIFTS BACK N. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST N OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE FAR NW PORTION THAT PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE SE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THU AND FRI WITH INCREASING N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT UNDER STRONG HIGH PRES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING S OF 24N W OF 94W MON NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE S OF 21N W OF 94W TUE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.