000 AGXX40 KNHC 271927 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 PM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET CONSENSUS THEN GEFS MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 PAIR OF WEAK LOW CENTERS ACROSS SW GULF ALONG TROFFING INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MAIN LOW NEAR 21N94.5W NE TO NEAR 22.5N90W. RECENT SCAT PASS SHOWED NEAR GALES W AND SW OF TROUGH INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND GALES N OF MAIN LOW AND OLD BOUNDARY...AND HAVE UPDATED HSF AND OFFSHORE ZONES TO ISSUE GALE THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 42002 HOVERING 809 FT PAST FEW HOURS WHILE 42055 NOW UP TO 10 FT WITH PEAK SEAS LIKELY TO NNW OF 42055 AT 11-12 FT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS GULF COAST STATES AND OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM MAIN LOW TO SE GULF ALONG 87W PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS BASIN W OF 90W. SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN LAST FEW RUNS OF GUIDANCE HAVE FORCED ME TO ALTER PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TO BEGIN TO DRIFT NNE TONIGHT WHILE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS E OF 90W WILL LIFT N TONIGHT AND FORM WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS MOUTH OF MS...WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT W OF 90W REMAINS ANCHORED TO LOW WITH STRONG NNE WINDS SPILLING INTO SW GULF. LOW AND WARM FRONT FORECAST TO THEN LIFT OUT TO NE...MOVING ACROSS FL PANHANDLE LATE SAT AFTERNOON- EVENING...THEN DRAGGED E AND NE ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF AND INTO ATLC SUN-MON AS STRONG S/W SWEEPS ACROSS SE U.S. HAVE USED A BLEND OF UKMET AND GFS FOR FRONTAL AND LOW POSITION. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO FAR S INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 00Z WED BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING MORE W TO E ALIGNED AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE BASIN THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PREVAILING N OF THE AREA IN THE SW N ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE ENE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BUOY 42056 IN NW CARIB JUMPED UP TO 7 FT THIS MORNING AT 12Z DUE TO UPSTREAM FLOW IN LEE OF CUBA OVERNIGHT BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED TO 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD E OF MID ATLC STATES AND INTO W ATLC WATERS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. AS STATED ABOVE...GULF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TUE AND LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE WED. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR GALES OFF COLOMBIA DURING NOCTURNAL WIND MAX TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT AS OF YET HAVE NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...WITH 3 EMBEDDED TROUGH SEGMENTS W OF 60W. LATEST ASCAT PASS...SHIP...BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS REMAIN 6-8 FT IN E TO NE SWELL OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NW WATERS WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...EXITING E OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SLY WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO MIA VCNTY MON MORNING...FROM JUST NW OF BERMUDA TO WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FROM 27N65W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA WED MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS REGION BEHIND FRONT TO CREATE ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES NW OF FRONT WED AND THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.