000 AGXX40 KNHC 261749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1249 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE DRIFTING NW ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND MERGING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN GULF. THIS MERGED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ON FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...A NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI WITH NW WINDS INCREASING W OF THE TROUGH TO 20-25 KT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE 20-25 KT NE WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF ON FRI NIGHT. NOTING THAT PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING THE LOW WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. ON SAT THE LOW WILL LIFT QUICKLY NE ALONG THE FORMER EASTERN GULF TROUGH THAT WILL BY THEN EXTEND NE FROM THE LOW TO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL CONTINUE EASTWARD PASSING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON SUN NIGHT. ATTENTION THEN SWITCHES BACK TO THE NW GULF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST ON SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RACE SE PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MON NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY 15-20 WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT ENHANCED BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST ON MON EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR PUERTO RICO IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT REACHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRI...THEN QUICKLY FILL. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 65W...AND WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR FRESH-STRONG TRADES SETTING UP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON FRI EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN EVENING AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE...WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT BEGINNING IN THE YUCATAN BASIN ON MON NIGHT...AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FRONTAL REMNANTS EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO ACROSS THE FAR NW BAHAMAS TO SE FL ARE SHIFTING NW WITH TIME ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RW. A N-S ORIENTATED INVERTED TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE S OF 25N ALONG 68W AND IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW WATERS TODAY...AND MERGE WITH BOTH THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG A LINE FROM 31N72W TO N-CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE N WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY ON FRI NIGHT WITH NE-E 10- 15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY SAT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME E-SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT...THEN SE-S 20-25 KT EARLY SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS ON SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO NW CUBA ON MON EVENING... AND FROM BERMUDA TO NE CUBA ON TUE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH MODEL BLENDING...THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW E AND W OF THIS FRONT IS STRONGER IN TODAYS GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.