000 AGXX40 KNHC 251827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE DRIFTING W FROM 24N80W TO 22N87W TO 19N92W ATTM WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS DECAYING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON THU AND FRI AND THEN MOVE E AGAIN ON SAT AND SUN. THUS FRONTAL TROUGH WORDING WAS INTRODUCED INTO THIS MORNINGS TEXT FORECASTS AND SOMEWHAT COMPLICATING THE SYNOPSIS...BUT NECESSARY TO DISTINGUISH THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF THAT WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS GULF WATERS S OF A LINE FROM THE SW COAST OF FL AT 26N81W TO 26N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W...BUT SEAS OF 6-9 FT CONTINUE IN THE NE SWELL. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT THIS EVENING. THE ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT MAINTAINING THE NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW WATERS THROUGH FRI... WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW WATERS. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE WIND STRENGTH...SO USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO TONE DONE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...AND THEN RUNNING NWPS ON THOSE AVERAGED WIND SPEEDS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE RESULTANT SEAS HEIGHTS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS ON SAT NIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SW WATERS FILLS AND THE FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER THE EASTERN GULF BEGIN TO MOVE E AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL IN TURN PASS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON SUN NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 25N95W LATE SAT...AND RACE E ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT... AND RACE S REACHING THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON WITH THE NW-N FLOW AT 20-25 KT BUT ONLY W OF THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT HAS DRIFTED NW OF THE YUCATAN BASIN THIS MORNING THUS REFERENCE TO FRONT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM TEXT PRODUCTS. THE NE FLOW AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY TO THE N OF 19N AND W OF 75W...AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NE-E WINDS AT 10 KT BY LATE FRI. AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 16N67W HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH ALONG 69W...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TS/RW E OF ITS AXIS...WILL MOVE W REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ON THU WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI THEN FILL ON SAT. MOD-FRESH TRADES WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT AND SUN...EXCEPT FRESH-STRONG TRADES WILL SETUP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH-STRONG NE WINDS WITH 6-9 FT SEAS ARE OBSERVED W OF THE FRONT. A N-S ORIENTATED TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE S OF 26N ALONG 67W...WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W TONIGHT AND THU AND MERGE WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO DRIFT NW AND NEARLY DISSIPATING ON FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON FRI AND MERGE WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE INITIAL MERGED BOUNDARY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA ON SAT NIGHT AND ABSORBS THE WEAKENING MERGED FRONT...THEN ACCELERATES ON SUN PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.