000 AGXX40 KNHC 240741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH WED...WITH THE ECMWF BLENDED THU THROUGH SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0420Z AND 0326Z UTC ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF THIS MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42055 REPORTED 14 FT SEAS AT 06Z...ABOUT 3 FT LOWER THAN THE 00Z MWW3 AND 2 FT LOWER THAN THE 00Z EC WAVE AND 18Z NWPS. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER SWELL SEEN IN THE SW GULF COMPARED TO THE MODELS. THE GALE IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY IN ZONES GMZ023 AND GMZ025. THE FRONT WILL PASS E OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WED EVENING THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF AND S CENTRAL/SE GULF WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK IMPACTING THE FORECAST HERE THU AFTERNOON WHEN IT STAMPS OUT 2.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN 6 HOURS AND INCREASES THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. AFRAID THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO BULLISH HERE. WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE DETAILS...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST THU THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM 0236Z AND 0142Z SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MODELS APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED HERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AS CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRES IS RETREATING TO THE E-SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INVADE THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...STALLING AND WEAKENING ALONG 20N BEFORE ITS REMNANTS RETROGRADE NORTHWARD WED. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN WIDE TUE...WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-6 FT...PERSISTING THROUGH THU. CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL MANAGE TO BUILD BACK TO THE W...N OF THE AREA FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BE BACK UP TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE HERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE SURFACE TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW WATERS. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG PRIMARILY N OF 18N WITH 8-11 FT SEAS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TUE INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGHING WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH THE ECMWF ADDED WED THROUGH SAT. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH EC WAVE ADDED WED THROUGH SAT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WED THROUGH SAT. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NW WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE MOST RECENT OSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES SHOWING THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONFINED TO N OF 31N. TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF 25N E OF BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EASTWARD...WITH A STRONG BREEZE FOUND IN THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS OVER SE WATERS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N67W TO 27N74W TO 23N80W WED MORNING BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS WED. CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS FORECAST CONTINUES TO WANE A BIT WED THROUGH SAT AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CARRIES A SLOWER AND WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH THE N ATLC THAT IMPACTS THE SWELL OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEK THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE WERE BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.