000 AGXX40 KNHC 231845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH WED...WITH THE ECMWF BLENDED THU THROUGH SAT. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 30N84W TO 25N88W THEN IS STATIONARY TO 18N94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE NE GULF NEAR THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BECOME CONFINED TO THE GULF S OF 22N EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 40 KT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF GMZ025 LATE TONIGHT. A 1614Z ASCAT AND 1528Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA. NDBC BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS TO 33 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 13 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 16 FT JUST N OF THE CAMPECHE COAST BY TUE MORNING. THE GALE WARNING WILL END BY 00Z WED. 09Z SREF 34 KT WIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 90 PERCENT) IN GMZ023...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR EXTENT INTO GMZ025 (ONLY 10 PERCENT RIGHT ALONG 94W). 12Z GEFS PROBABILITIES REMAIN GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT IN GMZ023...AND DO NOT EXTEND INTO GMZ025. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 26N82W TO 22N89W TO 18N92W TUE MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF AND S CENTRAL/SE GULF WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE DETAILS...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST THU THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AS CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRES IS RETREATING TO THE E-SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN...MODERATE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INVADE THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE EVENING...STALLING ALONG 20N BEFORE RETROGRADING NORTHWARD WED AS TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE N. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE BASIN WIDE TUE...WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-6 FT...PERSISTING THROUGH THU. CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL MANAGE TO BUILD BACK TO THE W...N OF THE AREA FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BE BACK UP TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH THE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE BASIN...WILL USE THE GFS ALONE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST HERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE SURFACE TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH W THROUGH THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 16N. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WILL COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TUE INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGHING WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH THE ECMWF ADDED WED THROUGH FRI. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH EC WAVE ADDED WED THROUGH FRI. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WED THROUGH SAT. THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS S OF 27N AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N OF 27N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-7 FT N OF 27N...AND 7-10 FT S OF 27N...EXCEPT 1-3 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS MON EVENING...REACHING FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W TUE MORNING...AND FROM 31N67W TO 27N74W TO 23N80W WED MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS WED. CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS FORECAST CONTINUES TO WANE A BIT WED THROUGH SAT AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CARRIES A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM THROUGH THE N ATLC THAT IMPACTS THE SWELL OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE WEEK THAN ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF AND EC WAVE WERE BROUGHT INTO THE FORECAST BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TUE. GMZ025...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.