000
AGXX40 KNHC 191817
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
117 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS IS INDUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN...WITH SEAS RUNNING
MAINLY 3-5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS WHILE
SHIFTING E...AND AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE W-NW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT BUILDING SEAS TO 6-9 FT.
THAT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SAT NIGHT...BRIEFLY STALLING
OUT FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE IN THE NW PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON WITH FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN GMZ023 MON WHERE GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES
ARE AROUND 40-50 PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...UP TO 30 KT.
AN ISOLATED GUST TO 35 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. SEAS WILL
BE 8-12 FT...EXCEPT TO 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADE
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE AREA WEAKENS DUE TO COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SUN INTO MON. SEAS WILL BE 8-12 FT IN PRIMARILY NE SWELL.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS/MWW3
BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY...THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER FRONT...ARE WITHIN 120-150 NM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH/OVERTAKE
THE EASTERN BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW-N. MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 27N WITH NE-E MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 27N. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG S OF 24N AND MODERATE TO FRESH N OF 24N FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE 7-11 FT S OF 27N IN E-SE SWELL...AND 4-7 FT
N OF 27N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS LATE
MON...STRETCHING FROM 31N74W TO GRAND BAHAMA TUE MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.