000
AGXX40 KNHC 171801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
101 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENT COLD FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG
WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WATERS
WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WATERS WHERE SEAS IN THE
1-2 FT RANGE PREVAIL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY WEEKS END.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS N OF THE AREA IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN
THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN EASTERLY SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
IN THE 9-12 FT RANGE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS IN THE
6-8 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS
WILL DISSIPATE BY WED. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH WED BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WEST OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE
FRONT...AND GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE
FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT...6-9 FT E OF
THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE A REINFORCING
FRONT HELPS PUSH THE FEATURE EASTWARD. THE REINFORCED FRONT WILL
PUSH E OF THE AREA BY THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND HELP INCREASE TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.