000
AGXX40 KNHC 161800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
 
THE COLD FRONT THE MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SHIFTED SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR NW GULF CLOSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE OVER THE SW GULF...5-7 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 2-4 FT
RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT NE AND BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING THE SE
UNITED STATES. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND FRESHEN WINDS OVER
THIS AREA BY WED. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND FURTHER FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF AND DIMINISH THE WINDS TO NEAR
15 KT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED N OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
STARTED TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SW N ATLC WATERS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT THE COVERAGE OF FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES HAS DIMINISHED. CURRENTLY...FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 9-12 FT RANGE IN EASTERLY SWELL OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS
IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NW
WATERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH WED BEFORE ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT PREVAILED OVER THE AREA HAS RETREATED
EASTWARD AND IS NOW EXTENDING OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS ENABLED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST WATERS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
WESTERN CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT WINDS WEST OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
AREA E OF THE FRONT...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA E OF THE FRONT AROUND THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7
FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT...6-9 FT E OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
INCREASE TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.