000
AGXX40 KNHC 141806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
106 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE
FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF W OF THE FRONT AND 3-5 FT
ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO TONIGHT...ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT...AND
SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO GALE
FORCE S OF 26N W OF 94W BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THEN WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN EVENING AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY
MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUN BEFORE IT STARTS TO RETREAT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL ENABLE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. AS UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE
FRONT LIFTS OUT...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OUTSIDE
THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL RETREAT EASTWARD SUN ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL LIFT
OUT. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY TUE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT STALLS
FROM NEAR 29N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY IN THE WEEK WHERE IT WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.