000
AGXX40 KNHC 131920
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
SATURDAY...WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S BAY OF CAMPECHE
SUNDAY...AND WILL REACH THE CARIBBEAN SEA MONDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED IN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUNDAY AND
WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING OF FRONT REACHING THE GULF AROUND 18Z
SATURDAY...WITH GALES GOING FROM 06Z SUNDAY UNTIL ABOUT 00Z
MONDAY. PEAK WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 KT NEAR
18Z SUNDAY. THE ECMWF TENDED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THE
GFS...SO THE FOCUS IN THE FOCUS IS UPON THE GFS MODEL. THE
WAVEHEIGHT PREDICTION IS BASED UPON OUR NWPS WAVE MODEL DRIVEN
FROM OUR WIND GRIDS. PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
TO BE 16 FT AT 00Z MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE US EAST COAST TODAY AND
WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORCING AND THESE TRADES WILL
RELAX SOME ON TUESDAY. THE WAVEHEIGHT PREDICTION IS BASED UPON
OUR NWPS WAVE MODEL DRIVEN FROM OUR WIND GRIDS. THE RATHER LARGE
AREA OF 25 KT TRADEWINDS WILL GENERATE WAVEHEIGHTS 12-14 FT OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12Z SATURDAY UNTIL AROUND
18Z MONDAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT
BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WILL DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA COAST INTO NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE TUESDAY. NO GALE FORCE WINDS OR WAVEHEIGHTS OF AT LEAST
12 FT ARE ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER THE CURRENT FRONT OR THE ONE
REACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WAVEHEIGHT PREDICTION IS BASED
UPON OUR NWPS WAVE MODEL DRIVEN FROM OUR WIND GRIDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN.
     GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.