000 AGXX40 KNHC 120844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 344 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET CONSENSUS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JUST S OF SARASOTA AREA WSW ACROSS BASIN TO NEAR 22N96W THEN STATIONARY SSE TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93.5W...WITH WAVE SUGGESTED ALONG FRONT OFFSHORE OF SW FL. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NNW WINDS W OF FRONT ALONG MUCH OF MEXICAN COAST AROUND 20 KT WITH LARGE POCKET OF 25 KT N OF CABO ROJO. SEAS IN THIS AREA HAVE TO BE 8 FT STILL AND ABOVE WAVE MODELS. PEMEX BUOY CS1 REPORTING NNW WINDS 13 M/S G 18 AND SEAS 2.2M AT 07Z. 1038-39 MB HIGH ACROSS MS VALLEY TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TODAY AND FORCE FRONT SE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF GULF AND SW N ATLC...THEN SHIFT E TONIGHT AND FRI AND FORCE FRONT INTO STRAITS OF FL AND ALONG NW COAST OF CUBA AND NEAR N COAST OF YUCATAN BY 12Z FRI. W PORTION OF FRONT ALIGNED N TO S ALONG MEXICAN COAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LEAVE WEAK TROFFING THERE. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS GULF TODAY N OF FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI AND WINDS VEER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO E ACROSS E HALF...WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 92W IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS N TEXAS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY SAT BUT SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MS VALLEY AND SE U.S. SAT-SUN WHICH AFFECTS FRONTAL POSITION. ATTM WILL GO WITH GFS-UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH RE FASTER THAN ECMWF...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GEFS MEAN...BRINGING FRONT WEAKLY INTO NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON THEN REACHING FL-AL STATE LINE TO NEAR TAMPICO BY 00Z SUN. GALES ARE LIKELY TO THEN SPILL S DOWN COAST AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH NEAR 12Z MON. BASED ON RECENT EVENTS I AM LEANING STRONGLY TOWARD 30M WINDS OF UKMET AND GFS YIELDING GALES TO 40 KT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 45 KT SUN EVENING ACROSS W BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15-18 FT. WW3_ENS MAX SHOWING 19-20 FT DURING THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES WWD ALONG ABOUT 29N TO NEAR 72W EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF CARIB E OF 80W...AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E TO 35W. AS HIGH ACROSS U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT E TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. BROAD AND LONG FETCH OF ENE TO E WINDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO PUMP UP WIND SWELL ACROSS CARIB...AND ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHERE LARGE AREA OF 10-12 FT SEAS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA. NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES 06-12Z FRI AND SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUN NIGHT AS WELL. SEAS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CARIB TO BUILD 9-12 FT BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT PAST 12 HOURS AND FRESH TRADES NOW CONFINED TO S OF 21N ACROSS SE PORTIONS. STALLED FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY SE E OF 76W...BUT WILL SINK SE DURING THE DAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWEEP ACROSS ERN U.S. AND SFC HIGH ACROSS MS VALLEY BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. FRONT EXPECTED FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA TO MIA-UPPER KEYS BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN FROM 26N65W THROUGH STRAITS BY 00Z SAT WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH GLOBAL MODELS...WITH ECMWF SLOWEST...AND HAVE USED A GFS-UKMET MEAN. FRESH N TO NE FLOW WILL BLAST OFF SE U.S. COAST AND NE FL THIS MORNING AND SPREAD SE BEHIND FRONT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING...AND GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO NARROW 90-120 NM ZONE N OF FRONT FRI AND HIGH SHIFTS OFF E COAST. HIGH WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY E PAST BERMUDA BY SAT AS LOW AND NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEP INTO GULF WITH HIGH OPENING UP ACROSS SW N ATLC AND YIELDING MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW BY LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SE INTO NW WATERS SUN. SW FLOW 20-25 KT N OF 29-30N TO SET UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUN THROUGH MON...WITH WEAKENING FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR 30N68W TO SE FL COAST BY 12Z MON. SUPPORTING ENERGY TO LIFT OUT TO NE WITH LOW BOMBING OFF E COAST DURING THAT TIME AND WEAK PRES GRADIENT AT SFC BEHIND THIS FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.