000 AGXX40 KNHC 111946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3 THEN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO STRENGTH OF NEXT COLD FRONT. STATIONARY FRONT FROM SW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 19N94W BEGIN DISSIPATING LATE THU. VIGOROUS HIGH PRES 1037 MB BUILDS OVER SE STATES FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E BREEZE WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH EARLY FRI. WIND VEER AND DIMINISH TO A MODERATE E-SE BREEZE AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT FRI AS A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS ALONG TEXAS COAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. NOT ALL MODELS AGREE ON STRENGTH OF WINDS ALONG COAST OF MEXICO... GMZ017 AND GMZ023. WHILE ALL REACH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS... ONLY GFS JUMPS INTO GALES AND THEIR TIMING VARY ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY. WHILE FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS AS PATH OF LEAST REGRET... EARLIEST AND STRONGEST...IT MAY BE OF LESS IMPACT IN REALITY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. W ATLC HIGH PRES SHIFT E INTO CENTRAL ATLC WITH GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS BASIN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS DIMINISHING WINDS TO A FRESH E BREEZE AND SEAS 6-8 FT IN E SWELL E OF 80W. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED INSIDE OF CARIBBEAN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS LONG E FETCH ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. SECOND HIGH PRES MOVING OFF E COAST TIGHTENS GRADIENT AGAIN ACROSS WATERS AND BRING WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. W ATLC HIGH PRES SHIFTS E AND ALLOWS PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 27N80W BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS 4-5 FT TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTER NW CORNER WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS AND SEAS BUILD EVENTUALLY TO 8 FT BY FRI. COLD FRONT REACH 29N65W TO 24N69W BEFORE MOVING E OF AREA AND ALLOW SECOND HIGH PRES TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 75W LATE FRI AND SAT. WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE LITTLE BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NW CORNER SUN BRINGING STRONG SW FLOW N OF 28N W OF 76W AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT REACH 31N71W TO 23N80W BY LATE MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.