000
AGXX40 KNHC 101939
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WIND AND SEAS.
 
COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM BIG BEND IN FLORIDA TO 19N96W WITH GALE
FORCE WIND UP TO 40 KT OVER WIDE AREA S OF 26N W OF FRONT. ASCAT
PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS VERIFY MODEL FORECASTS. NWPS HAS BEST
HANDLE ON QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. VIGOROUS HIGH PRES 1034 MB SHIFT
SE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT FORCING FRONT SE ACROSS BASIN REACHING
FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WED AND OUT OF
BASIN LATE WED. EXPECTED GALES TO RUN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRES 1024 MB BUILDS INLAND MEXICO KEEPING COLD NW AIR FLOW INTO
GMZ023 THROUGH TONIGHT.  MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF FRONT AND GALES. BY FRI HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO
WESTERN ATLC AND GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS GULF WITH WIND DIMINISHING
TO A MODERATE E BREEZE AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT BY SAT. SECOND
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WITH WEAKER HIGH
PRES 1029 MB IN ITS WAKE. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE
IN THIS CASE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.  

W ATLC HIGH PRES 1027 MB DRIFT E ALLOWING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO
RELAX AND DIMINISH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE FLOWING ACROSS
TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN BASINS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGING WIND OVER
WESTERN PART OF BASIN PROMPT SCATTERED CONVECTION APPROACHING GULF
OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE OVER LAND BY WED.

VERY LONG FETCH OF FRESH TRADES MAINTAIN SEAS 8-9 FT ACROSS 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THU WITH 7-9 FT SEEPING INTO
CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

W ATLC HIGH PRES 1027 MB DRIFT E AND WINDS DIMINISHED TO FRESH E
TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 76W...WITH SWELLS 8-10 FT LINGERING TO
80W. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THU AS HIGH SHIFTS E AND
RIDGE WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...FRONT MOVES OFF NE COAST OF FLORIDA
INTO FAR NW PORTIONS TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS N WATERS AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AND WED AS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL SURGE SHIFT
E OUT OF AREA LEAVING FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT
SLIGHTLY NW LATE WED BEFORE NEW RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO WRN
ATLC THU AND BEGINS TO PUSH WEAKEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE AGAIN.
GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS BEHIND FRONT LATE THU AND EARLY FRI FOR
STRONG NE BREEZE BEFORE GRADIENT EASES LATE FRI...WINDS VEER E-NE
AND FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GMZ019...NONE. 
GMZ021...NONE. 
GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.