000 AGXX40 KNHC 100839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 339 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SE AND INTO NW PORTIONS OF REGION AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. SWEEPS EWD OVERNIGHT...AND HAS BEGUN TO FORCE STATIONARY FRONT S AND SE...AND NOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM COASTAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MOUTH OF MS RIVER TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N98W. RECENT ASCAT PASS AND COASTAL OBS INDICATE NLY WINDS 20-25 KT SPILLING OFF TEXAS AND INTO COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT ATTM. NWPS HAS BEST HANDLE ON QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS AND WILL BLEND IN STRONGLY EARLY. 1034 MB HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT SE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND DRIVE FRONT S AND SE ACROSS BASIN...REACHING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 21.5N95.5W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS W PORTIONS AND DRIFT SE TO BOCA GRANDE ACROSS E PORTIONS THROUGH 00Z THU. AS SUSPECTED LAST NIGHT...GALES SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO BEGIN BY 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF FRONT...AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 09Z...THEN SPREAD S ALONG COAST AND W OF FRONT...AND INTO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z...AND EXPECTED TO END BY 06Z TONIGHT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF FRONT AND GALES. AFTER 48 HOURS...HIGH SHIFTS NE TO MID ATLC STATES AND GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS GULF...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO NEAR 20 KT N AND W OF FRONT EXCEPT FOR NE PORTIONS NEAR 15 KT. ECWAVE INDICATING SEAS REMAINING TO 9 FT THROUGH 00Z THU AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SLOWER TREND IN SUBSIDING SEAS. NEW HIGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THU AND TIGHTENS GRADIENT AGAIN N OF ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE GULF AND ACROSS FL KEYS...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-25 KT AGAIN W OF 88W. MODELS SUGGEST NW FLOW ALONG MEXICAN COAST S OF 24N TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME TO 25-30 KT...WITH CHANCE FOR SMALL AREA OF GALES AGAIN AS WELL. PROCESS REPEATS ITSELF AS HIGH SHIFTS FROM NE TEXAS NEWD INTO ERN U.S. THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH GRADIENT RELAXING AGAIN AND WINDS VEERING ELY ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS. LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE FRI AND MOVE E...WITH FRESH S TO SE RETURN FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ENTIRE GULF LATE FRI...AND FRONT MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS W ATLC HIGH NOW 1027 MB AND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLOWLY E....AND ALLOWING STRONG PRES GRADIENT OF PAST 36 HOURS TO BEGIN TO RELAX EVER SO SLIGHTLY. REMNANTS OF WEAKENING TUTT LOW MARCHING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB NOW ALONG 80W AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SQUALLS AND TSTMS MOVING WNW ACROSS JAMAICA AND INTO CAYMAN BASIN. LONG FETCH OF 20-25 KT TRADES YIELDING LARGE SWATH OF SEAS 9-10 FT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 11 FT BETWEEN 66W AND 77W AND GENERALLY N OF 14N ATTM...WITH BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 BOTH AT 10 FT. BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH 00Z THU WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W AND ADJACENT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. VERY LONG FETCH OF FRESH TRADES TO MAINTAIN SEAS 8 TO 9 FT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH 00Z THU AND 7-10 FT INSIDE THE CARIB E OF 81W. HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO WRN ATLC LATE THU AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE E ATLC...AND REINVIGORATE TRADES TO 20-25 KT LATE THU INTO FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING AGAIN. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AS STATED ABOVE...W ATLC HIGH NOW 1027 MB AND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SLOWLY E...AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS S AND SE WATERS S OF 22N...WITH SEAS STILL 8-10 FT ATTM...AND EXTENDS WNW INTO SE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 77W WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 8-9 FT INTO WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF NE COAST OF CUBA. WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY S PORTIONS THROUGH 00Z THU AS HIGH SHIFTS E AND RIDGE WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...FRONT TO MOVE OF NE COAST OF FL AND INTO FAR NW PORTIONS THIS EVENING AND STALL ACROSS NW WATERS AND CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED AS SUPPORTING UPPER ENERGY IN STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW SHIFT QUICKLY E AND OUT OF AREA LEAVING FRONT BEHIND. BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT SLIGHTLY NW LATE WED BEFORE NEW RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO WRN ATLC THU AND BEGINS TO PUSH WEAKEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE AGAIN. GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING FOR 20-25 KT NE WINDS BEFORE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE FRI AND WINDS VEER MORE ENE...AND FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN TO SHEARLINE FROM NE WATERS WSW THROUGH STRAITS OF FL. DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MS VALLEY LATE FRI AND SAT TO ALLOW ATLC RIDGE TO OPEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF E COAST OF U.S. AND YIELD FRESHENING SELY FLOW E OF 75W AND S WINDS ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS AND SW PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.