000
AGXX40 KNHC 091840
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NW GULF FROM MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 24N96W. 
EARLIER SCAT PASSES SHOW MODERATE N-NE WINDS NW OF FRONT AND 
GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SE FLOW E OF 90W EXCEPT 15-20 KT THROUGH 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3 
AND POINT TOWARDS BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES TUE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS 
W PORTIONS AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A FRONT 
ACROSS ERN U.S. AND CENTRAL G-O-M. N WINDS TO 30 KT TEXAS WATERS 
EARLY TUE WILL SPREAD S...BECOMING ENHANCED OROGRAPHICALLY TO 
REACH MINIMAL GALE IN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF 96W FROM 18Z 
TO 00Z. LEANING TOWARD STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION. GALE COULD START 
AS EARLY AS 15Z TUE. EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT BEHIND FRONT 
SHIFTING SWD DOWN MEXICAN COAST UNTIL HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. 
SHIFTS QUICKLY NE AND GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. FRONT WILL 
STALL FROM S FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING AND BECOME 
STATIONARY THU. MODELS SHOW NE WIND BRIDGING ACROSS FRONT THU 
AND FRI WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

STRONG GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES S OF BERMUDA NEAR 
30N64W AND LOWER PRES ACROSS VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA PRODUCING 
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF 15N AND E OF 76W. CUT 
OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N67W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
NEXT 24 HRS. SCT SQUALLS AND A FEW T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS 
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SHIFT WWD TO NEAR JAMAICA TONIGHT. ASCAT 
DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FURTHER SOUTH NEAR COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS E OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND IS 
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 60W WWD TO 
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TO 22-23N. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS 
NE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. ROUGH SEAS TO 11-12 FT WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDING ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN 
PASSAGES. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
ACROSS THE AREA E OF 80W WED THROUGH FRI.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N64W DOMINATES 
SW N ATLC. STRONG GRADIENT S OF HIGH MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TO E TRADE WINDS S OF 23N AND ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS....WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO 30 KT THROUGH WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. 
ASCAT PASSES SHOW ENHANCED TRADES EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH SRN 
BAHAMAS TO 76-77W AND SEAS TO 7 FT S OF BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE AND 
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA 
COAST INTO NW WATERS TUE EVENING THEN EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 
30N65W TO S FLORIDA WED. REINFORCING COLD AIR AND STRONG HIGH 
ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH FRONT SE THROUGH SRN PORTIONS THU. 
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG KT N-NW WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT 
BEHIND FRONT THU THROUGH FRI.
     
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE. 
GMZ013...NONE. 
GMZ015...NONE. 
GMZ017...GALE WARNING TUE AFTERNOON. 
GMZ019...NONE. 
GMZ021...NONE. 
GMZ023...NONE. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.