000 AGXX40 KNHC 090916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 416 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NW PORTIONS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY SE ACROSS MS DELTA AND DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING NW AND INLAND ACROSS UPPER MEXICAN COAST THIS MORNING...AS DEEP LAYERED S TO SW FLOW ABOVE PBL ACROSS W AND NW GULF INCREASES. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW N TO NE WINDS 10-15 KT TO NW OF FRONT AND SE TO S FLOW E OF 90W AND LIKELY 15-20 KT THROUGH STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS. TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS SW PORTIONS ALONG 94-95W. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3 AND HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES TUE ACROSS W PORTIONS AS NEW HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NW HALF BEHIND A FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS ERN U.S. AND INTO W ATLC. N WINDS 25-30 KT ACROSS SE TEXAS WATERS FIRST THING TUE MORNING WILL SPILL S AND BECOME ENHANCED OROGRAPHICALLY TO YIELD MINIMAL GALES ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF 96W FROM AT LEAST 18Z TO 06Z WED ACROSS WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...PER LATEST UKMET. GFS HAS NOT VERIFIED WELL THIS SEASON WITH THESE POST FRONTAL GALES AND THUS AM LEANING TOWARD STRONGER EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. GALE COULD START AS EARLY AS 12-15Z TUE...WHILE NELY WINDS 20-25 KT BUILD ACROSS REST OF N AND NE PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT. SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT BEHIND FRONT AND SHIFTING SWD DOWN MEXICAN COAST BEFORE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. SHIFTS QUICKLY NE AND INTO ERN U.S AND GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA TO OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED EVENING AS FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT OFF E COAST OF FLORIDA WED EVENING BEFORE HIGH FORCES WAVE AND BOUNDARY SE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WITH FRONT REACHING FL KEYS TO SW GULF FRI WITH WIND VEERING MORE ELY AND HALTING SWD PROGRESS OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS SHOW NE WIND BRIDGING ACROSS FRONT THU AND FRI AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS DURING THAT TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE/SHEARLINE CONTINUE NEARLY E TO W ACROSS SE PORTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN 1028 HIGH S OF BERMUDA AND BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO PRODUCE ZONE OF STRONG TRADES GENERALLY N OF 15N AND E OF 76W. UPPER LOW HAS CUT OFF PAST 24-36 HOURS AND SHIFTING W AND WEAKENING...AND ENHANCING CNVTN S OF HISPANIOLA IN BROAD ZONE OF LLVL CONVERGENCE. A BRAID AND WEAK WAVE IN LLVL FLOW CONTINUES UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AND SHOULD SHIFT WWD WITH IT NEXT 24 HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SCT SQUALLS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS AND SHIFT WWD TO S OF JAMAICA NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS SUGGESTS BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES S OF HISPANIOLA NOW BUT HAVE NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT...BUT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WW3 AND ECWAVE SHOW MAX OF 12 FT IN THIS REGION S OF HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT...BUT BUOY 42058 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AT 11-12 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL THUS BUMP UP SEAS A FT OR TWO IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS OUTSIDE OF CARIB AS WELL AND IS CREATING A VERY BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT ENE WINDS FROM 60W WWD ACROSS THE NE CARIB ISLANDS...WATERS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TO 22N. WINDS AND SEAS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE STARTING TUE AS HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. VERY ROUGH SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 9-12 FT ACROSS ATLC WATERS OF NE CARIB ISLANDS AND THROUGH PASSAGES...AND 8-10 FT ACROSS THIS AREA E OF MONA PASSAGE. WHILE THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE THROUGH FRI THE ATLC RIDGE WILL STILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG ABOUT 29N AND MAINTAIN ENE-E TRADES 20-25 KT ACROSS THE AREA TO THE E OF 80W THROUGH LATE THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1028 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST S OF BERMUDA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEARLY E TO W ALONG 30-31N AND DOMINATING SW N ATLC E TO 45W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG GRADIENT S OF HIGH MAINTAINING STRONG NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTY ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO NE CARIB ISLANDS AND PASSAGES FOR VERY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS....WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO 30 KT CURRENTLY THROUGH WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW THIS STRONG FLOW EXTENDING W THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS TO ALMOST 77W AND YIELDING SEAS 7-9 FT IN THIS SRN CORRIDOR OF BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUE AS HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT NE AND GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...BUT WITH WINDS STILL 20 KT AND SEAS 7-8 FT SE PORTIONS BY THU. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST AND INTO NW WATERS TUE EVENING AND STALL FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR 30N65W WED EVENING AS TROUGH DEVELOPS S OF FRONT AND OFFSHORE OF SE AND S CENTRAL FL WED. 1040 HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TO THEN PUSH FRONT SECONDARY SURGE ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND FORCE FRONT SE AND THROUGH SRN FLAND NW QUARTER OF AREA BY THU NIGHT AND ACROSS N HALF OF AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-9 FT BEHIND FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.