000 AGXX40 KNHC 070900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 1028 HIGH CENTERED JUST E OF BERMUDA W-SW ACROSS FL PENINSULA TO NEAR 90W...WHERE STALLED FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SE ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GULF...EXTENDING FROM SE U.S. ACROSS FAR W FL PANHANDLE TO WEAK LLVL LOW ALONG MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N96.5W. N TO NNE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT DEPICTED IN BUOY OBS N OF 26N...WHILE 0332Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SURPRISE WITH SMALL AREA OF GALES ALONG MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 22N AND 24N. GFS ONLY FORECAST 30 KT THERE THROUGH 12Z WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS SUGGEST GALES THROUGH 18Z SPREADING SWD DOWN THE COAST AND WILL ISSUE A SMALL GALE AREA ACCORDINGLY. WW3 UNDERDONE BEHIND FRONT...NOT SUPRISINGLY SINCE WINDS ARE LOW...AND WILL OPT FOR HIGHER SWH MORE IN LINE WITH ECWAVE...WITH MAX TO NEAR 11 FT OFF COAST OF TAMPICO. FRONT TO INCH SE ACROSS S PORTIONS AND MOVE SE INTO BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON- EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NW AND FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z SUN...AND LINGERING ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE BEING FORCED SE AGAIN...REACHING FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 25N96W TO VERA CRUZ TUE EVENING...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBS SHOW 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES ALONG MEXICAN COAST AT 00Z WED...WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS NOW SHOWING ONLY 25 KT MAX DURING THAT TIME. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THESE GALES FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE IN AGREEMENT SO WILL NOW FOLLOW SUIT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO REGION FROM MOST RECENT GALE CENTER ACROSS E ATLC W-SW ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND IS ILL DEFINED. ENERGETIC MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED LOW ACROSS NE CARIB SITTING ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...AND CREATING SUBSIDENCE W THROUGH S OF PUERTO RICO AND INTO E CENTRAL CARIB. FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SE ACROSS LEEWARDS NEXT FEW DAYS AND PARENT LOW MOVES E-SE AND THEN QUICKLY OUT OF ATLC HSF AREA LATE MON. BERMUDA HIGH SITTING DUE N OF THIS AREA AND PRES GRADIENT N OF BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS WEEKEND THROUGH WED AS A 1029 MB HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. SEAS N OF FRONT BUILDING 8-11 FT TODAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY S WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LEEWARDS TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT 8-10 FT.. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGE WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW DAYS TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 80W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SEAS 6-9 FT AND 9-11 FT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SSE TONIGHT INTO SUN..GFS SHOWS GRADIENT FLOW INCREASING S OF HISPANIOLA TO ESE 25-30 KT THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS ACROSS N CENTRAL CARIB BUILDING 10-12 FT. NE WIND SWELL DURING THIS TIME WILL BLEED THROUGH NE CARIB/ATLC PASSAGES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH UKMET PREFERRED FOR E ATLC GALE THROUGH 48 HRS. 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST E OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW ACROSS FL INTO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W AND YIELDING A 420 NM WIDE ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NW OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM E ATLC GALE TO VIRGIN ISLANDS. LARGE AREA OF 9-12 FT SEAS IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SE WITH DRIFTING FRONTAL ZONE...WITH HIGHEST SEAS WITHIN AREA OF SOLID 25 KT WINDS E OF 63W. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SEAS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WW3. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SINK S-SE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH STRONG NE-E FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS CONTINUING 9-12 FT. THESE SEAS WILL IMPACT THE N COASTS OF THE ISLANDS...SPREADING INTO CARIB/ATLC PASSAGES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW WATERS. MODEL NOW FORECAST FRONT TO SLOWLY ENTER AMZ111 EARLY THU...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.