000
AGXX40 KNHC 060836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
336 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

A RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM JUST NE OF BERMUDA SW TO
SW GULF. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOW MODERATE SE TO S FLOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT. COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
SE OFF TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS WITH N WINDS AROUND 20 KT
BEHIND IT...AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT. COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REACHING FROM NEAR ATCHAFALAYA
BAY TO 25.5N96W TO NEAR TAMPICO BY 00Z...THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
OVERNIGHT...REACHING FROM APALACHICOLA TO 25N95W TO FAR WRN BAY
OF CAMPECHE SAT MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL AGAIN. FRESH TO
STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL ACCELERATE 25-30 KT ALONG
MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10
FT. PREFER STRONGER ECMWF WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SAT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR GALES IN PREFERRED ZONE OF SW BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ADJUSTED
GRIDS ABOVE 30 KT BUT WILL INCREASE A FEW KTS TO FORCE GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS IN THAT ZONE SAT. ATLC HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK FROM
THE E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FRONT OR
THE REMNANTS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM FL PANHANDLE TO NW GULF TO W
PORTIONS ALONG 95W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE W CENTRAL AND SW GULF BY TUE
MORNING BEHIND NEXT FRONT...AND CONFIDENCE REASONABLE WITH THIS
ATTM.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO NW COAST OF DOM REP...WITH MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED LOW ENHANCING CNVTN ALONG AND AHEAD
OF FRONT...AND CREATING SUBSIDENCE W THROUGH SW OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SHEAR LINE NEXT 48 HOURS...
SINKING TO THE SE-S...WHILE THE MID-UPPER TROUGH SINKS SE ACROSS
NE CARIB. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS A 1028 MB
HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY DUE N OF THE AREA TO YIELD ENE WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT.

OTHERWISE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...EXCEPT FOR THE NOCTURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OFF OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS 5-8 FT AND 9-10 FT OFF
COLOMBIA. BERMUDA HIGH TO REORGANIZE JUST SW OF BERMUDA LATE SUN
AND MON AND ALLOW WINDS TO VEER MORE ELY...AND QUICKLY BUILD SEAS
ACROSS N AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS INTO 8-11 FT RANGE...WITH ENE
WIND SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH NE CARIB PASSAGES.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARD ECENS MEAN
AFTER 48 HOURS.

1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN GULF AND YIELDING A 360 NM WIDE ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE
NW OF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE N OF THE NE CARIB...WHERE SEAS AREA
BUILDING 8-10 FT ATTM. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAILS WITH SEAS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WW3. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...FRONTAL ZONE TO SINK S-SE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DIMINISH TO
SHEAR LINE...WITH STRONG ENE FLOW PERSISTING 300-360 NM TO THE N
AND SEAS CONTINUING TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT AND INTO N COASTS OF
ISLANDS AND INTO PASSAGES LATE SAT INTO SUN. 

DEEPENING LOW SINKING S INTO HIGH SEAS AREA ALONG 47-48W THIS
MORNING LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL CROSS 30N NEXT 12 HOURS AND PREFER
A BLEND OF THE UKMET-ECMWF FOR LOW POSITION...AND ASSOCIATED GALES
POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS 12Z THIS MORNING. LONG FETCH TO THE
SW OF LOW AND N OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NE TO ENE WIND SWELL INTO
SE PORTIONS BEYOND MID WEEK...AS RIDGE PERSISTS...WEAKENS...AND
SHIFTS SE INTO CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND EXITING LOW.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. 
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.