000 AGXX40 KNHC 050800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT PSN OF COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND MON. THE LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG 28N E OF 91W. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOYS...AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT FOR E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE. W OF 91W WINDS ARE SE- S 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR SE 15 KT WINDS S OF 26N. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT S OF 26N...TO 2-3 FT N OF 26N. SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST CHANGES TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL BE SEEN AS FOLLOWS: THE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FRI THROUGH SAT. VERY DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST REGION OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDS HAS AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE REACHING THE THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT...THEN REACH A PSN FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS BY DAYBREAK FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW FOR COLD ARTIC AIR TO SURGE SWD TOWARDS THE WRN AND GULF WATERS. THIS STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRIVE THE FURTHER SSE TO A PSN FROM NEAR FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 26N95W AND S TO THE SW GULF AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN ON SUN AS IT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD. THE LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N95W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NNE TOWARDS S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHILE WEAKENING. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO INDUCE N-NE SURFACE TO 10M WINDS OF 20-25 KT FRI WITH SWATHS OF 25-30 KT N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N AND ALONG PORTIONS OF SRN TEXAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE BRIEF INSTANCES OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE FAR WRN PORTION ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SRN TEXAS COAST...AND ALSO IN ZONE 17...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH TOPOGRAPHY OF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF WIND VELOCITY THERE. WINDS DIMINISH SUN OVER THE WRN GULF AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKEN THERE...BUT ARE FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MON AS N WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF...AND TO A PSN FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TO TAMPICO MEXICO. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT FRI INTO SAT BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY SAT AND THROUGH SUN. SEAS THEN BUILD BACK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 9 FT OR 10 FT BEHIND THE FOLLOWING FRONT ON MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ASCAT PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT DEPICTED MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. THE ASCAT DATA HINTED AT STRONG E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASSES ONCE AGAIN MATCHES VERY WELL WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER...IN THE RANGE OF 4-7 FT. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS. HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALSO HAPPEN OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. BY SAT...THE WINDS WILL HAVE BEGIN TO INCREASE REACHING MOSTLY THE FRESH INTENSITY OVER THE N CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN AND SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE EXPECTED INTO MON. WITH THESE INCREASES IN THE ELY WINDS...THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU...AND HIGHER TO 8-10 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EXPANDING WWD TO THE ERN PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING. THE MAX 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...THEN BUILD TO 12 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN INTO MON...AND TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION BEGINNING LATE FRI AND LASTING INTO EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. THESE SEAS THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATER ON SUN AND INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS...WHILE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES IS PRESENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE 0138 UTC AND 0338 UTC ASCAT PASSES HIGHLIGHTED LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NE-E OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR S-SW WINDS IN THE NW PART. THE EXCEPTION IS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND ERN CUBA WHERE NE 20-25 KT WINDS WHERE INDICATED BY ASCAT PASSES. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT NE AND N OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. THE NWP MODELS FORECAST THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE ROUGHLY ALONG 19N E OF 70W BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTER INTENSIFYING SOME AS IT SHIFTS FROM W TO E JUST N OF THE REGION. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS BETWEEN SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TO EXPAND IN N AND W IN AREAL COVERAGE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUN...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE COVERAGE BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT E OF THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON SUN AND MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.