000 AGXX40 KNHC 040759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2...GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. MWW3 GUIDANCE USED FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...MAINLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WRN GULF WITH FRONT. THE LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A RATHER WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 27N. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOYS...AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS ARE INDICATING SE-S 10 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE E OF 90W...AND SE-S 15-20 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE W OF 90W. SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE E OF 88W...AND SW 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE RIDGE W OF 88W. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS ONES. LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THU MAINTAINING THE MODERATE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF...AND OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY GENTLE ON THU. THE SLY FLOW WILL CONSIST OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS IN THE NW GULF. THIS SHOULD LIKELY BRING SEA FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE BEEN MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR WRN GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT...AND OUT THE FAR NW WATERS OF THE NW GULF ZONE EARLY ON FRI MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG A PSN FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS. FROM FRI THROUGH SAT STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS S PUSHING THE FRONT SEWD TO PSN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE N CENTRAL GULF...AND TO NEAR VERACRUZ. ON SUN...THE MODELS AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WEAKENS...AND LIFT SLIGHTLY N BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM JUST INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA...AND TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRAIL SW TO VICINITY OF VERACRUZ. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO INDUCE N-NE SURFACE TO 10M WINDS OF 20-25 KT FRI WITH POSSIBLE NARROW SWATHS OF 25-30 KT N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N. SIMILAR WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE BRIEF INSTANCES OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF ZONE 17...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH TOPOGRAPHY OF THE MEXICAN COAST LINE BEING CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF WIND VELOCITY THERE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY SAT AND THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0156 UTC LAST NIGHT DEPICTED MOSTLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS UNDER A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 84W AND S OF 19N INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE THE 0338 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT CAPTURED E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE DATA FROM ASCAT PASSES MATCHES VERY WELL WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A SHIP VERY NEAR THAT COAST IS REPORTING 3-4 FT SEAS. SIMILAR SEA STATE IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER A PORTION OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS NE SWELLS THERE HAVE ABATED. THE LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOYS THERE SHOW SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. THE PRESENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. BY SAT...THE WINDS WILL HAVE BEGIN TO INCREASE REACHING MOSTLY THE FRESH INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE FAR NRN CARIBBEAN AND SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED INTO SUN. WITH THESE INCREASES IN THE ELY WINDS...THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU...AND HIGHER TO 8-10 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI ...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EXPANDING W TO THE ERN PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING. THE MAX 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION BEGINNING ON SAT AND LASTING INTO SUN...WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH MWW3 FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 26N65W SW TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS...WHILE HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE. THE 0158 UTC ASCAT PASS HIGHLIGHTED LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NE-E SE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS AND BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...NW TO THE NW OF THE FRONT TO 71W...AND SE-S IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO LINGERING NE SWELLS...AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NWP MODELS FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES TO THE FAR SE WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO A SHEAR ALONG 19N E OF 71W BY THU AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SAT WITH THE PARENT HIGH CENTER INTENSIFYING SOME AS IT SHIFTS FROM W TO E JUST N OF THE REGION. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO ELY WINDS OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THROUGH SUN...AND WHILE EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE BOTH NWD AND WWD TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT E OF THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT...AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.