000
AGXX40 KNHC 031842
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
142 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 GUIDANCE USED
FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDS A SURFACE
RIDGE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THU.
THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS BY
EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF THEN ON TO THE SW GULF
WATERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS FRI INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 GUIDANCE USED
FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF WHILE SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE WINDS TO FRESH TO
STRONG OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAILING OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINING N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN...WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
NEAR 10 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA THIS WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 GUIDANCE USED
FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N62W AND EXTENDS TO
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 68W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 75W AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS W OF 75W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ALSO PREVAIL E
OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE REGION OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...4-7 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR
75W AND 4-5 FT W OF 75W AND OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS W OF THE
BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. SEAS E OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE AREA BY WED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.